Posted: 13.12.19

The fate of the parties in London

Nothing has changed, nothing remains the same

2017-2019wardsnomps-01-5df3ab55cc920.jpg (original)

As of writing, results are in for all of London’s 73 seats. 69 constituencies have been held by their current party and four have changed hands, though the net result in terms of seats-by-party is the same as 2017 - with Labour at 49 seats, the Conservatives at 21, and the Liberal Democrats at three. No other parties have taken any seats here – reflecting the strong hold of the two-party system in the capital. 

We do not yet have the numbers for London-wide vote share and total turnout (in % terms) but we will be publishing graphics with more detailed results later this afternoon, so do follow us on @LDNcomms if you don’t already.

Here are the overall results in the capital, in terms of seats held, won and lost by each party. Below that we’ve captured some of the key headlines for each party.

local-elections-2019-results-table2-5df3ac859f53a.jpg (original)

LABOUR

Compared to its poor national result – in terms of seats – Labour has at least held the line in London. They lost one constituency, the ultra-marginal seat of Kensington (more on this below), but managed to scoop up Putney, rebel Tory-turned-Independent Justine Greening’s former seat, where Fleur Anderson won with a majority of 4,774.

It is notable that of the 49 seats now held by the party, the party saw its vote share fall in no less than 41 (between -11,496 in Hornsey & Wood Green and -507 in Ealing Central & Acton). Even Jeremy Corbyn himself and his Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell saw their majorities squeezed (by -7,027 and -8,854 respectively). These eroded majorities could be a worrying result for London Labour, particularly in view of the May 2020 Mayoral elections.

CONSERVATIVES

The Tories will be elated at their national performance but in London their results are less conclusive. They were unable to crack Labour seats such as Croydon Central and Dagenham and Rainham in the same way that they took hold of other Leave-voting areas in the ‘Red Wall’ up north, though they did manage to take Carshalton & Wallington from the Liberal Democrats (more on this below).   

The party also gained Kensington from Labour, though Felicity Buchan’s majority of only 150 suggests the seat will definitely be in play again at the next election – and aside from their loss in Putney, the Tories also lost the ultra-marginal Richmond Park.

The Conservatives’ majority fell in only five of the 21 seats they now hold and Boris Johnson can also boast an inflated majority in his home territory of Uxbridge and South Ruislip (up by 2,176).

It is difficult to see how this result could translate into any significant advantage in May’s Mayoral election but there may be a renewed confidence and impetus in the party’s overall message.

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

The Liberal Democrats started their campaign with high expectations, buoyed by a strong showing in London at the European elections in May and their performance in recent Council by-elections. However, it wasn’t quite the night they hoped it would be.  

Ed Davey, this morning appointed interim leader of the party after Jo Swinson lost her seat, held on in Kingston & Surbiton with an increased majority (+6,365). The party also retained Vince Cable’s former seat of Twickenham, where new candidate Munira Wilson was elected with a majority of 4,359. They also won back Richmond Park, where Sarah Olney returned to put Conservative Zac Goldsmith out of a job.

But they also lost a London seat, as Tom Brake failed to cling on to Carshalton & Wallington, as he won just 629 votes less than his Conservative opponent. Recent high-profile defectors to the party, Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna and Sam Gyimah, all failed in their bids for Finchley & Golders Green, Cities of London & Westminster and Kensington respectively.

 

Robert Gordon Clark, Chairman & Partner
Stefanos Koryzis, Research Manager
Emily Clinton, Research Assistant
Melanie Webber, Junior Designer