LDN Weekly – Issue 308 – 20 March 2024 – AND THEY'RE OFF

Dear Reader,

The last few days saw the starting pistol fired on the race for City Hall. After months of unofficial campaigning, the phoney war is now behind us, as the formal campaign period begins. Already, two of the candidates have launched their campaigns – expect the others to follow suit in the coming days. As we cover in today’s LDN, policy promises are coming thick and fast. The manifestos themselves won’t be far away.

Rest assured that LCA’s Insight Team will be keeping you abreast of all the twists and turns. And, as part of this, we’re launching a new blog series ‘Race for City Hall’ ahead of polling day on 2 May. In the weeks leading up to election day, LCA’s industry-leading team of experts and opinion formers will give their take on some of the key topics related to the built environment which might play a role in determining the outcome of the contest.

First up, LCA’s Senior Advisor and Partner, Robert Gordon Clark – a seasoned observer of all six mayoral contests to date, sets the scene for what could be a pivotal election in London’s history. Partner & Board Director Chris Madel then takes a look at the role transport and infrastructure might play in the mayoral election. Be sure to read, share and check our socials for more.

Yet, with so much of the chatter at a national level focused on the will he/won’t he drama of Rishi Sunak calling a General Election (and rumblings of a plot against him by his own backbenchers), the mayoral contest is somewhat under the radar. Yet for all the main parties, their performance on 2 May matters. Voters go to the polls in London for the Mayor and Assembly, but beyond the M25 Metro Mayors are also up for re-election, as are all Police & Crime Commissioners and nearly 2,000 local councillors. We might not like the fact that voters use these kinds of elections to express an opinion on the Government of the day, but that is the reality we find ourselves in. Early May will provide a barometer of the political weather and could be key in determining where the momentum lies.

There are two major changes to this mayoral contest – the first is the voting system (this time, there is just a single vote rather than a first and preference vote). Second, ID is required for voting in person at a polling station. There’s a list of acceptable forms of ID, or you can apply for a Voter Authority Certificate – if you have neither, you will be turned away.

Both of these changes aren’t without controversy and introduce an element of the unknown into the contest. Already the Electoral Commission has warned that hundreds of thousands of people risk being unable to vote – London’s demographics could see a disproportionate number of people lacking the right ID. Little surprise perhaps that Sadiq Khan is being very vocal that this could hit his chances.

So far, there are 12 declared candidates vying to be the next Mayor of London. If you fancy throwing your hat in the ring, there’s still time – deadline for submitting nomination papers is 4pm on 27 March. All you need is 330 signatures from people on the electoral register (ten from each borough, plus the City of London) and a £10,000 deposit. Don’t worry – you’ll get this back if you get over 5% of the vote – last time round, that was a mere 120,000 votes! If you don’t fancy risking £10,000 or thrusting yourself into the spotlight as a candidate, don’t forget to register to vote (deadline 16 April) so you can have a say in who does win on 2 May.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS ROUNDUP

Starter’s orders: Incumbent Mayor Sadiq Khan launched his 2024 re-election campaign on Monday joined by Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer. Khan issued a new pledge to build 40,000 new council homes by 2030, suggesting that tackling the capital’s housing crisis looks likely to be a key feature of his campaign. Starmer said that electing Khan would be a ‘once in a generation’ moment to ‘capitalise’ on London and a future Labour national Government working in tandem.

Cleared the air? The presence of Starmer at the Mayor’s side felt significant, given the friction between the two over last summer’s expansion of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) during the Uxbridge by-election. In a remarkable contrast to last July, Starmer praised Khan for ‘leading for London’ on air quality and said it is ‘right to focus on air pollution,’ stating he did not want his children to ‘breathe in dirty air.’

Don’t get cocky, kid: Recent weeks have seen a resurgence in pre-election expectation management. Khan has extended a ‘love letter’ to Liberal Democrat and Green Party voters urging them to protect the ‘progressive vote’ on 2 May, no doubt mindful of the impact new voter ID requirements and changes to the voting system could have on the outcome. Khan will be less pleased with news tube drivers plan to strike in April – just before polling day.

Flak incoming: Khan’s re-election campaign led to some hostile attacks, with a Times editorial slamming his poor record, and the Telegraph arguing Khan “is eminently vulnerable to a sustained attack on his record” but bemoaning the lack of “fire in the Tory belly”.

Nothing is certain: Undaunted and determined, Lib Dem candidate Rob Blackie launched his campaign, delivering a broadside to both main parties. Blackie is making crime a major campaign issue, saying Khan does “not deserve” a third term and the Tories “have given up on London”.

Calling all cars: Expect more formal campaign launches from the other parties in the coming days. In the meantime, Tory candidate Susan Hall pledged to reintroduce free peak-time travel for Freedom Pass and 60+ Oyster card users, dubbing ‘cruel’ Khan’s move during the pandemic to restrict usage.

Backseat driving: Reform UK’s candidate Howard Cox goes a step further than Hall in transport policy, as detailed in BBC London’s helpful roundup. Scrapping the entire ULEZ, the congestion charge, and any local traffic measures such as Low Traffic Neighbourhoods are firmly on Cox’s agenda, in a campaign which could pose a potential challenge to Hall’s vote numbers, if national figures are to be believed.

Outsiders return: Former banker and London Real leader Brian Rose has announced his intention to stand again, following his seventh place result in the 2021 mayoral election. And after some speculation (and a crowdfunding effort) Count Binface also returns to the ballot paper hoping to capitalise on his 1% vote share in 2021.

Gove goes for it: Secretary of State Michael Gove has ‘directed’ the Mayor to review parts of the London Plan, following the earlier independent review back in January. Gove invoked the GLA Act 1999 to instruct Khan to review industrial land allocations and his 47 Opportunity Areas for their potential to deliver more homes.

Raised eyebrows: Gove used the last day of freedom before the pre-election period restrictions kicked in for his intervention via a Written Ministerial Statement, doing little to dispel the cynicism of those viewing it as little more than a party political intervention.

HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

No place like home: With housing set to be a hot topic in the coming elections, the state of the market and, in particular, the shortfall in the numbers of new homes being built are both likely to gain growing attention.

Wherever I lay my hat: The cost and availability of homes regularly scores highly among voter concerns, and recent years has seen this move up the list of voter priorities. Just recently, 65% of Londoners said housing has got worse.

Regal Barking: With the political parties already making announcements on housing and planning – and with more likely in the coming weeks - London Councils’ housing lead and Barking and Dagenham chief Darren Rodwell’s contribution is his call for a Royal Commission on the topic. Why would London need a Royal Commission? Well…

Homeward bound: Last year saw home completions in London down 48% on 2022 with the House Builders Federation finding residential planning permissions at their lowest level since 2006. Moody’s found social housing providers margins have fallen faster in London than elsewhere in the country, constraining the delivery of new homes. And…

House of pain: Persimmon’s pre-tax profits down 52% and warning of a challenging year ahead….Taylor Wimpey profits halved, and building fewer properties this year than last….  Crest Nicholson share price down, delivering 11% fewer homes in 2024. And….

Ain’t nothing going on but the rent: After a period that saw steep rises in rents, estate agents Chesterton’s reported rents dropping 10% after a large increase in the number of properties on the market.

Getting better all the time: Yet despite the gloom, the latest Residential Market Survey from RICS has UK estate agents’ optimism for the housing market at its highest for nearly two years with housebuilder Berkeley bucking the market trend, reporting strong growth and profitability. Rightmove reported house prices on the rise across the city, with demand for homes stronger in London than anywhere else in the UK.

A very big house in the country: Centre for Cities pointed to a strong recovery in the city’s population post pandemic, estimating that there are now more than the previous peak of 10.1 million residents living in the capital, further contributing to the city’s housing pressures. The research showed that while people did flee London during Covid, this has now reversed with inner London boroughs reporting stronger inflows than pre-pandemic.

Getting the band back together: Dame Kate Baker will lead a new commission into England’s housing shortage for think tank Radix, two decades on from her original report. Barker will be joined by Lord Best, Doreen Wright from A2Dominion, Rick de Blaby of Get Living, Andrew Taylor from Vistry and Richard Blyth of the RTPI. 

Start Me Up: Centre for London’s new report on how to kickstart the city’s economy has thrown down the gauntlet to the next Government and Mayor. Among a string of recommendations including greater devolution over rail services, skills and tax levying powers, the think tank’s most eye-catching and controversial proposal is for ten sites in the Green Belt near rail stations to be released for new development corporations to support housebuilding. Over to you, Khan, Hall, Sunak and Starmer. 

• The community-led Save Our South Bank Action Group launched a legal challenge of the Secretary of State’s decision to approve CO-RE and Mitsubishi Estate’s plans for the redevelopment of the former ITV Studios on the South Bank. The group claims that Gove’s decision on 6 February was ‘legally flawed’ and ‘contradicted his recent announcements regarding housing priorities and reducing carbon.’
  
  
• Linea Properties unveiled plans to redevelop 1.5a of land in Shoreditch, including the demolition of ‘several’ of the existing buildings on-site. The plans include the delivery of around 65,000 sqm of office space, a new 19-storey building, and 77 homes (35% affordable). The proposal also includes 39,000 sq ft of public realm connecting Shoreditch and the City through five new public routes. A planning application is expected to be submitted in summer 2024.
  
  
• Lion Group’s plans to deliver a new seven-storey office building on Epworth Street in Islington are set to be decided at planning committee. The plans include demolition of two existing office blocks of three and four storeys, to be replaced by a new red-brick 31,997 sqm office block. The scheme has been deferred by Islington’s Planning Committee three times to seek design revisions, despite being recommended for approval by planning officers at every stage.
  
  
• Criterion Capital is reported to be creating new designs to redevelop the eight-storey Haymarket House at Leicester Square into a 437-room hotel. Criterion, owned by leading West End developer Asif Aziz, bought the building from CPPIB and Hermes Real Estate in December 2023. The hotel plans would more than double the amount of rooms proposed by non-consented plans from 2019, which saw the addition of extensions to the building.
  
  
• British Land has sold a 50% stake in the 1 Triton Square office development to Royal London, creating a new joint venture to transform the wider Regent’s Place scheme into a life sciences and innovation hub.

• Former Leader of Hounslow Council, Steve Curran, has sadly died. Curran led the council from 2014-22, overseeing the regeneration of Hounslow and Brentford town centres and the new Brentford Community Football Stadium. Current Leader, Cllr Shantanu Rajawat, described Curran as a ‘force of nature’ and a leader who ‘changed the borough dramatically and for the better.’
  
  
• The London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC) has confirmed that Lord Hendy of Richmond Hill and Lyn Garner will be stepping down from their roles as Chair and Chief Executive from 2025. Hendy, who was appointed in 2017, and Garner who joined in 2018, oversaw over five years of transformation on the Olympic Park in east London. A recruitment process for their replacements has begun in line with the reduction of the LLDC’s planning powers at the end of 2024.
  
  
• Chief Executive of Barnet Council, John Hooton, is to step down from the role in June after eight years. The council’s Deputy Chief Executive Cath Shaw will lead as Acting CEO until a permanent replacement has been recruited.
  
  
• Willmott Dixon has appointed James Mackenzie as their new Chief Finance Officer, joining from Berkeley Group.
  
  
• The Langham Estate has appointed Malcolm Pugh as Chief Executive, promoted from his previous role as Chief Operating Officer.

CANDIDATE WATCH

• London Assembly Member Peter Fortune has been selected as the Conservatives’ candidate for the new parliamentary constituency of Bromley & Biggin Hill.
  
  
• Political commentator and consultant Alex Deane is the Conservative candidate for the marginal seat of Finchley and Golders Green, where sitting Tory MP Mike Freer is not seeking re-election.
  
  
• Sutton Liberal Democrats selected Cllr Barry Lewis as the next leader of the group on the Council. Subject to a Full Council vote, Cllr Lewis will be the next Leader of Sutton Council, following Ruth Dombey who announced she’d stand down in May. Lewis has been a councillor for Wallington North since 2019 and is Chair of the council’s Environment & Sustainable Transport Committee.
  
  
• Cllr Rosalind Dore, Labour councillor for Hale End and Highams Park South on Waltham Forest Council, is the party’s General Election candidate across the border in Epping Forest.
  
  
• Lewisham councillor for Lee Green, Ese Erheriene, is Labour’s candidate for Woking.
  
  
• Cabinet Member for Finance on Enfield Council, Cllr Tim Leaver, is standing for Labour in North West Norfolk.
  
  
• Former Lambeth councillor Iain Simpson is Labour’s candidate for Broadland and Fakenham.
  
  
• Labour ward councillor for Hillrise, Cllr Dave Poyser, has resigned from Islington Council and independent councillor for Brentford West, Lara Parizotto, has resigned from Hounslow Council citing ‘personal and work reasons.’ Both will see by-elections on 2 May.

CULTURE AND TOURISM LATEST

Surprise appearance: Nothing reminds us more that our city remains an attractive destination for arts, tourism and culture more than an appearance of work by the elusive Banksy, who confirmed that a new mural in Finsbury Park is indeed his. It even got the seal of approval from a familiar face before being defaced overnight.

Attractive: According to new data from the Association of Leading Visitor Attractions (ALVA), the British Museum was the UK’s most visited attraction in 2023, welcoming 42% more guests than the previous year. The Natural History Museum came second, with a 22% increase in visitors.

The cost of culture: While visitor numbers to attractions have increased year-on year, they remain down compared to pre-pandemic figures. Cost of living pressures and the expense of visiting London could be a factor, with Which? Travel magazine showing how much the cost of travel to London and entry into tourist attractions has increased compared to 1974, when entry into the Tower of London was just 10p (90p in today’s money).

Sad news: The Vault Festival is to close after failing to secure the funding required to move to a new home. Established in 2012, the festival hosted theatre and comedy performances at The Vaults in Waterloo, but struggled to recover from the impact of the pandemic.

Last but not least: New art pieces are set to take up the coveted fourth plinth at Trafalgar Square. Lady in Blue by Tschabalala Self in 2026, and Untitled by Andra Ursuţa follows in 2028. Deputy Mayor for Culture Justine Simons claimed that the fourth plinth is ‘the most successful public art commission in the world’ and demonstrates the capital’s ‘rebel spirit’.

WE RECOMMEND

• What our Board Director and Co-Managing Director Jane Groom got up to at MIPIM in Cannes last week.
• Why the London Mayoral election could be closer than you think.
• Why Coram children’s charity says that London is not a child-friendly city.
• Nicholas Boys Smith’s advice to government about making cities better for walking and cycling.
• Best places to live in Britain? Clerkenwell is up there, according to the Sunday Times, with Crouch End and Forest Hill not far behind.
• As mentioned earlier, Robert and Chris’s blogs on the coming Mayoral contest.

AVISON YOUNG AT MIPIM

The LCA team secured an interview for Avison Young’s CEO, Mark Rose, with fDi at MIPIM. Rose commented on the outlook for the sector and the distress in the current real estate market cycle, alongside other industry leaders in fDi’s round-up of the event. Read the full piece here.

THE CREATIVE ECONOMY – THE POWER FOR BETTER PLACES AND LIVES   

LCA is proud to be the Communications Partner for the inaugural Creative Industries Property Summit (CIPS), on 7 May at King’s Place, King’s Cross.

Presented by Movers & Shakers Property Networking Forum, this influential one-day conference will bring together leaders from Real Estate and the Creative Industries to drive inclusive and equitable economic growth, deliver social impact to people and communities, and deepen conversations, collaborations, and connections.

Use our exclusive code LCA0705 to secure a discount on your tickets here.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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