LDN Weekly – Issue 305 – 28 February 2024 – Turning Down the Political Temperature

Dear Reader,

As an unashamed politics geek who has spent much of his working life in and around politicians, these past few weeks have been dispiriting. Being personally close to some of those involved, I’ll be restrained in what I write, but neither of the main parties fare well out of recent events.

Crucial debates about where our country goes next as we zoom towards the General Election – tackling climate change, building the homes we desperately need, breaking out of the productivity trap that has seen the economy stagnate, ensuring public services are up to the challenge - risk being crowded out by angry, polarised political discourse. International events are heightening tensions further, placing unprecedented pressure on our institutions.

Our adversarial politics is not well suited to these times, when what’s needed is to turn down the temperature, not crank it up. London feels this more than elsewhere – after all we’re the nation’s capital city, and the natural location for protest as the home of Parliament and the Government. But we are also the most culturally, ethnically and religiously diverse part of the UK. I’m not Panglossian about London – it faces some enormous challenges – but the overwhelming majority of people who live here want to work hard, live in a decent home and look after their families. These are our families, friends, colleagues – our neighbours, the people we sit next to on the tube, those whose jobs keep London running. And it is a beacon to many, many people across the UK and beyond these shores, who see it as a place to come, be safe, thrive and live their lives as they wish. 'In London everyone is different', said a wise bear called Paddington, 'and that means anyone can fit in'.

Those on the extremes must be called out. Threats of violence and intimidation are unacceptable. But sweeping generalisations and loose language about whole communities won’t help with this task and likely make the job even harder. Political differences – and debate, discussion and the legitimate criticisms of parties and politicians that comes with this – are best settled at the ballot box. Division, aggression, demonisation, the pitching of one community against another, the London versus the rest of the country agenda – none of this will help us in tackling the huge social, environmental and economic problems of our time.

We need to rediscover the lost art of disagreeing cordially. And it is a time for cool heads and unifying voices.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS LATES

Special Measures – The Sequel – Tower Hamlets is in the news, but not for the right reasons, as ministers send in inspectors over concerns about how the council is being run. This is the second time in a decade inspectors have been sent in to the borough.

To the point: A letter to the council’s Chief Executive made clear that budgets and financial planning, the appointment of senior management, the use of policy advisers and grant-making are areas of particular concern.

On Commission – the four commissioners are Kim Bromley-Derry (former Chief Executive of next door Newham), Suki Binjal, Sir John Jenkins and Philip Simpkins.

Some history here…. – Tower Hamlets under current Mayor Lutfur Rahman has a chequered political history. Rahman was Labour leader of the borough 2008-10, removed as the party’s candidate for the 2010 Mayoral contest, stood as an independent and won, re-elected in 2014 as a Tower Hamlets First candidate, before the result was declared null and void by an election court in 2015.  After being found guilty of corruption and illegal practices, he was barred from standing for elected office until 2021. After serving out his time, Rahman dramatically returned as Mayor, winning the 2022 Mayoral election for Aspire.

Punchy response – Rahman responded on X, listing his achievements since returning as Mayor. While expressing disappointment, he stated a willingness to cooperate with the inspectors.

Beyond Tower Hamlets – local government financial woes continue to generate headlines, with the Evening Standard splashing on the perilous state of London’s local councils. This comes as a survey by the Local Government Intelligence Unit reports half of councils across the country said they were likely to be unable to balance their books in the next five years.

No, Mr Anderson – elsewhere in London politics, tensions escalated after Conservative MP (and former party deputy chair) Lee Anderson claimed Islamists have got control of Mayor Sadiq Khan. His refusal to apologise saw him stripped of the Tory whip, yet the story refuses to die down.

Rallying round – politicians across the spectrum rallied to Khan’s support, with a strong editorial from the Evening Standard condemning Anderson’s comments. Both Khan, and his Tory opponent Susan Hall, issued strong statements, although as the Standard’s editorial noted, Hall did not go so far as to condemn Anderson’s original remarks.

Oh no, no go – one senior London Tory that did criticise Anderson was former Minister for London Paul Scully, yet he quickly ignited a new row by referring to parts of Tower Hamlets (and Sparkhill in Birmingham) as ‘no go’ areas. In fairness to Scully, he quickly apologised.

Double whammy – Scully’s comments and Anderson’s continued commentary keeping the story going, will no doubt leave those running the Tory mayoral campaign pulling their hair out. Morale won’t be helped by the first Mayoral poll since November showing Khan with a commanding 25 point lead over Hall, ahead in both inner and outer London, and in every age bracket apart from the over 65s. The same poll also asked Londoners for their General Election voting intentions, with the Tories down at just 17%, leaving their MPs in marginal constituencies staring down the barrel.

Corbyn v Corbyn – Unsurprisingly, Labour’s expectation management continues to downplay poll leads and talk up the risks of Khan losing. Anxiety in the ranks may be somewhat soothed by reports from Piers Corbyn that his brother Jeremy is extremely unlikely to enter the race for City Hall. Previous polling showed that Khan’s lead was at risk of evaporating if Jeremy did run.

Green day – over at OnLondon, friend of LDN Dave Hill has an in depth interview with aspiring Green Party Mayoral candidate, Zoe Garbett. With the switch to first past the post this time round, the challenge for the Greens is to be heard, and not crowded out by the two largest parties.

What we learned - Garbett wants a transport network that is affordable, sustainable and reliable, with reduced fares for more younger and older people. She favours doing away with TfL’s zonal system, replacing it with a flat fare structure. She wants more Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and active travel measures, favours drug liberalisation and would lobby hard for rent control powers. She sees rewriting the London Plan as an opportunity to tighten rules around development to deliver what she says are the homes the city most needs.

PRE-BUDGET BRIEFING

Countdown: With just a week before the Spring Budget, we’ve taken a look at what to expect. As the likely last Budget before the General Election, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is widely expected to announce eye-catching measures to woo the voters. Yet, with 6 March approaching, reports suggest he might not have quite the financial wriggle room he’d hoped, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warning that the Chancellor’s financial planning is ‘dubious’ and that he should set out where savings will be made before announcing tax cuts.

Reality cheque: The Times reports a cut to National Insurance rather than income tax, which had been the focus of speculation. Other measures that had been floated but which now seem unlikely to be announced next Wednesday include cuts to stamp duty and inheritance tax, as well as the extension of child benefit to middle-income families.

Tourist tax: It’s looking unlikely the Treasury will reinstate the tax-free shopping for tourists, despite the Chancellor commissioning the Office for Budget Responsibility to ‘examine the costs and benefits’ of the measure, which allows international visitors to buy goods duty-free. Since being scrapped in 2020 there’s been a concerted campaign by businesses for its reintroduction.

Youth vote? Reports suggest the Chancellor may announce 99% mortgages, helping prospective buyers struggling with deposits for a home. Some see this as a bid to reverse the Government’s flagging support among young people, yet others are concerned that boosting demand without increasingly supply simply exacerbates the problem by inflating house prices further.

What our sector wants: The National Housing Federation (NHF) and Shelter jointly have urged the Government to fund delivery of 90,000 social homes a year. According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the government would break even in three years, help create 140,000 jobs and lead to a £12bn profit over 30 years. The G15 have called for an extension of the Affordable Homes Programme, an updated Decent Homes Standard and the granting of the remainder of the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund. The British Property Federation (BPF) has also called for leadership from Government on the decarbonisation of the built environment, including by encouraging the retrofit of existing buildings.

Watch this space: We’ll be keeping a close eye on next week’s statement and will bring our initial takeaways in next week’s edition.

• Bridges Fund Management and developer Hub submitted plans to the City of London Corporation for a new 174-home co-living development at 45 Beech Street, on the edge of the Barbican Estate. Plans include retrofitting the existing 12-storey 1950s office building to include ground floor café and co-working spaces, as well as urban greening. LCA continues to support Hub on the project ahead of determination later this year.
  
  
• The London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC) granted planning consent for Populo Living’s regeneration masterplan for the Carpenters Estate in Stratford. Following a residents’ ballot in which 73% voted in favour of regeneration, the plans will deliver of 2,152 new and replacement homes (50% affordable with 314 existing homes retrofitted) in 21 buildings up to 23 storeys, plus over 10,000 sqm of commercial space and seven parks.
  
  
• Nearby, Newham Council approved the University of East London’s plans for a new 650-bed student accommodation scheme plus 53,000 sq ft of academic space at its Water Lane campus. This includes a 16-storey accommodation building, plus landscaping and student amenities.
  
  
• Also in the borough, developers SineQN and IXDS submitted plans to Newham Council to deliver a 10-storey data centre at Bidder Street, Canning Town occupying a 4.65 acre former scrap metal yard. The new data centre would reportedly generate enough recycled heat for up to 13,000 homes in the borough through a heating network.
  
  
• Plans by Hines to deliver a £1bn development of three mixed-use towers of 22, 40 and 44 storeys at Blackfriars Road in Southwark have been redesigned following criticism by Historic England. One story has been removed from the tallest proposed tower, as well as removing a planned glass-window link bridge between two buildings.

• Trowers & Hamlins has appointed Suzanne Benson as Head of UK Real Estate, replacing Sara Bailey who is stepping down after a decade in the role. Benson will retain her current position as head of Trowers’ Manchester and North West offices.
  
  
• Grosvenor UK’s merged investment and development teams will be led by Rachel Dickie, who is currently Executive Director for Investment.
  
  
• Construction Director at Sellar, Paul Flexney-Briscoe, has left the role after eight years with the business, having first joined in 2018 from Landsec.
  
  
• Sir Robert McAlpine’s new Managing Director for Transport is Vip Gandhi, joining from Keltbray where he led on highways and renewables.

CANDIDATE WATCH

• Cllr Callum Anderson, Labour ward councillor for South Acton at Ealing Council, will contest the Buckingham and Bletchley constituency at the next General Election, which on current polling is marginal.
  
  
• Wokingham councillor Laura Blumenthal is the Brentford and Isleworth Conservative candidate for the seat at the next election.
  
  
• Former civil servant and Henley town councillor Dylan Thomas will fight Hayes and Harlington for the Conservatives at the next election.

BILLS BILLS BILLS

One for the books: The Government’s Leasehold and Freehold Bill has now passed third reading stage in the House of Commons in a surprisingly short but sharp five-hour debate. Before the third reading there were 89 pages of amendments for MPs to sift through, but as amended, it’s now down to the House of Lords to continue the scrutiny. With the Government lacking a majority in the Lords, this increases the chances of substantive changes to the bill.

Determination: Gove is determined the Bill becomes law before the next election, challenging property companies opposing reforms to ‘make that case in court.’ Yet this isn’t all plain sailing for Gove, with the Telegraph reporting that some voters are accusing the Government of ‘daylight robbery’ because leasehold reforms will undermine the finances of older voters.

Loophole watch: Despite the Government claiming that the Bill ends the sale of leasehold houses, the Leasehold Knowledge Partnership warns that the Bill could allow developers to continue selling leasehold properties if they are part of a retirement village or where existing leases have been granted for the site.

End of the beginning? Shadow Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook labelled the Bill as ‘unambitious’ after Labour amendments to end forfeiture (where freeholders can evict leaseholders for not paying ground rent) were rejected.

Leapfrog: Conversely, despite having been published before the Leasehold Bill in May 2023, the Renters Reform Bill is gathering dust. With no parliamentary progress since committee stage in November last year, recent reports offer some explanation for the static nature of the Bill.

Rent’s due: Both the BBC and the i reveal a significant lobbying effort by Conservative backbenchers opposed to the Bill who have tabled amendments cancelling out many of the Government’s reforms.

From Devon with Love: Conservative MP for Totnes, Anthony Mangnall, submitted the amendments, on behalf of a group of around 50 MPs, including London MPs Bob Blackman (Harrow East), Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green), and Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet).

Conflict of interest? The Renters Reform Coalition point out that 16 of the MPs are private landlords, with some owning five or more properties.

Not in scope: The rebel amendments ventured slightly off-piste from what Gove announced back in May. Backbenchers’ amendments would scrap landlord licensing, reintroduce fixed-term tenancy agreements, and allow landlords to opt out of the proposed Ombudsman service for the private rented sector.

Whose fault is it? According to the BBC, the Government is now consulting with Tory backbenchers and have proposed their own amendments to appease concerns. The proposals include a controversial inclusion of allowing ‘hearsay’ evidence in eviction claims for antisocial behaviour, plus reviewing the current system of landlord licensing.

Gove’s gambit: With the Government’s steadily dwindling majority, should 25 or more Tory MPs vote against the Bill, flagship elements of rental reform look vulnerable, and perhaps even the Bill as a whole.

It all adds up: Pennycook accused the Government of a ‘complete betrayal of voters.’ It’s still anyone’s guess when the Bill will actually reach report stage and third reading.

Get the candles: On 15 April this year, it’ll be the fifth anniversary of when former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May’s first pledged to abolish Section 21 ‘no-fault’ evictions.

WE RECOMMEND

• This interview with the Barbican’s new artistic director Devyani Saltzman.
• How Oxford Street’s fortunes have been improved.
  How many people have stopped using business cards since the pandemic.
• The Times’ look at the ‘modern Cockney’.
• Which political leader most Brits would like to eat a kebab with.
• After news it is to be turned into a hotel, a look back at the history of the BT Tower.

WHAT DOES THE NEXT WAVE OF URBAN REGENERATION LOOK LIKE?

Our client Avison Young UK is featured in last week’s Municipal Journal, both online and in print. UK President, Nick Walkley comments on the next generation of urban regeneration projects and how they will differ. He discusses how collaboration across the built environment sector will be essential, and the changing nature of partnerships.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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