LDN Weekly – Issue 311 – 11 April 2024 – Assembly Point

Dear Reader,

The race for Mayor dominates the coverage of the coming election – so much so, you might not even realise that Londoners will also choose the 25 members of the London Assembly on the same day.

Perhaps unsurprisingly so much of the attention is on the Mayoralty – after all, it’s a huge political role, with the second largest direct mandate in Europe (after the President of France). In 2016, Sadiq Khan got the greatest number of votes ever for a single candidate in UK electoral history.

Yet the Assembly elections also matter, because it’s a key check and balance on the Mayor of London’s considerable power. And to date the Assembly has been a stepping stone to greater things – a string of MPs, Shadow Cabinet and Cabinet members are alumni – most notably James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and David Lammy. Telling that, to date, no Assembly member has gone on to be Mayor – Susan Hall would be the first.

The Assembly holds two specific powers with the potential to cause all mayors problems. With the support of two thirds (or more) of the Assembly, the Mayor’s budget can be amended, and statutory strategies such as the London Plan, Housing and Transport Strategies can be rejected.

Periodically, there are debates about whether the Assembly’s powers are sufficient, and how (and if) the members are elected. Back when Parliament debated the original legislation, the Tory front bench proposed that members were nominated by the 32 boroughs and the City of London Corporation. In their 2017 General Election manifesto, the Tories proposed reforming the Assembly, but never quite got around to it. When the current Government recently changed the system for electing the Mayor, the Assembly was left untouched.

There’s another reason why the coming Assembly elections matter, which is particularly unique to 2024 - the results are a barometer of the political mood in key parts of the city with a General Election only months away. That’s why, starting in today’s LDN, we will look in a bit more detail at some of the key battlegrounds – starting with the West Central super-constituency – where Labour will be desperate to wrestle control away from the Conservatives.

We always enjoy hearing from our readers so do get in touch if you have any thoughts on LDN.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS ROUNDUP

Three weeks to go: With the Mayoral election now just 22 days away, (some of) the candidates are (sort of) ramping up their campaigning efforts. Hustings continue to see sporadic (at best) attendance by the candidates – Inclusion London the latest, at which Green candidate Zoe Garbett was the only of the main party representatives to attend.

A New Deal: Incumbent Mayor Sadiq Khan pledged new affordable homes with rents capped to key workers’ salaries. Dubbed the ‘New Deal for Renters’, it will see a minimum of 6,000 homes delivered by 2030 using funding from the existing Affordable Homes Programme. In response, Conservative rival Susan Hall called it a ‘hair-brained plan’ which would ‘worsen the housing crisis’.

London is open: The Mayor has also made a direct plea to Europeans living in the capital, using an open letter in the Standard to thank them for their contribution to London and ask for their vote. EU citizens continue to be eligible to vote in the election, with Khan pointing to the choice between ‘someone proudly pro-European’ and a ‘divisive, hard-right’ Conservative opponent.

Hands Across the M25: Khan and Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves made a joint pitch about resetting the relationship between London and the rest of the country. But, in a clear sign of a future Labour government’s tight control of the nation’s purse strings, Reeves refused to guarantee cash for new transport schemes in the capital.

Cutting crime: Hall continues to focus on public safety, accusing Khan of ‘losing control’ of crime in the capital. Releasing figures showing that ‘theft from person’ crimes have increased by 96% since his election in 2016, Hall pledged to put more officers on the beat if elected, as well as ‘bring back borough-based policing’.

Thinnest of blue lines: Having previously attacked Khan over the 2022 departure of Met Commissioner Cressida Dick, Hall – speaking this week to the Standard - refused to say if Dick should have remained in the post.

Silly Mid Off: Former England cricketer Kevin Pietersen waded into the debate on crime, semi-jokingly tweeting a photo having removed his watch and wearing a plastic ring. It’s not the first time Pietersen has got involved in a Mayoral race, having endorsed Zac Goldsmith in 2016. Nor is it the first time jewellery has been a campaign issue with Goldsmith infamously writing to Indian voters in 2016 warning them a vote for Khan could put family jewellery at risk.

Pay time: Hall continues pushing the message that Khan intends to bring in pay-per-mile road user charging, yet failed to condemn former Mayor Boris Johnson for exploring the introduction of a scheme. Election leaflets from the Conservative campaign have drawn criticism, branded as ‘deceptive’ by Full Fact.

Going green: Green Mayoral candidate Zoë Garbett launched her manifesto, setting out how she would create a ‘greener, more affordable London’. Making renting more affordable is a top ambition, with Garbett saying she’ll lobby the Government to introduce rent controls and a two-year rent freeze. Other policies include a flat fare on the Tube, increasing the London Living Wage, and reforming the Met to restore ‘trust and confidence’ in the police.

Lib Dem latest: Meanwhile, Lib Dem candidate Rob Blackie wants to reduce the ‘completely unacceptable’ levels of crime experienced by black Londoners as part of a Race Equality Plan for Policing. Measures include boosting the recruitment of black police officers and a ‘comprehensive analysis’ of the use of stop and search powers.

#BinDayIsComing: Independent candidate Count Binface launched his manifesto, pledging to force Thames Water bosses to ‘take a dip’ in the Thames, bring back Ceefax, Grade 1 List Claudia Winkleman’s fringe and place a price cap on croissants. The last of these is surely a policy we’d all endorse!

Auntie’s bloomers: the BBC apologised after airing Susan Hall’s election broadcast instead of that of her Labour rival, Sadiq Khan.

Top trumps: For those who want the topline on all the candidates, the Evening Standard published an old school guide on all 11 contenders.

LONDON ASSEMBLY - KEY BATTLEGROUNDS

Assembly point: as well as a Mayor, Londoners will also elect a new Assembly on 2 May. The London Assembly is 25-member body that holds the Mayor to account and scrutinises the work of the executive bodies accountable to the Mayor.

How is it elected? 14 super constituencies of two or more boroughs elect single members under the first past the post system. A further 11 members are elected via a list, proportionate to London-wide party vote totals. The outgoing Assembly make up is: 11 Labour, 9 Conservative, 3 Green and 2 Lib Dem.

Battlegrounds – over coming weeks, we’ll look in detail at key battlegrounds starting with West Central, and what the result might tell us about the coming General Election. West Central covers the boroughs of Hammersmith & Fulham, Kensington & Chelsea and City of Westminster.

History – in the six elections to date, West Central always returns a Conservative Assembly Member and votes for Conservative Mayoral candidates. But it’s moved towards Labour in recent years, having also voted heavily for remain in the Brexit referendum.

Politics – Tony Devenish is the incumbent (and also a Tory Westminster councillor), first elected in 2016 and standing again this time. His predecessors were Angie Bray and Kit Malthouse – both went on to be Tory MPs. Last time round, Devenish finished 2,225 votes ahead of Labour – but this majority has fallen in successive elections from over 51,000 in 2008.

2024 candidates: Devenish faces Labour’s candidate James Small-Edwards (Westminster Labour councillor, with famous rugby player and popstar parents). Christophe Noblet for the Lib Dems, Nicola Pateman for Reform UK and Rajiv Rahul Sinha for the Greens.

What to watch – Labour fancy their chances of nabbing the seat, having narrowly missed out last time, boosted by capturing Westminster Council in the 2022 elections. But the Tories will be desperate to hold on, checking Labour’s momentum in inner London.  As it is a first past the post contest, the relative showings of the other parties could be a deciding factor – last time, the Greens and Lib Dems picked up 1 in 5 votes and this time the Tories will be fearful of a strong Reform showing.

Dry run for the General – parliamentary candidates in seats within the West Central area will be watching closely. The results will give a glimpse into the battles for the Tory constituencies of Kensington & Bayswater, Cities of London and Westminster and Chelsea & Fulham (the latter of which is home to Conservative Party Chairman, Greg Hands) – all of which current polling suggests are vulnerable to being lost to Labour.

• Tower Hamlets Council granted approval for plans by Berkeley Group’s St George subsidiary for 547 homes (43% affordable) on the former News International printworks site. The proposals also include 418sq m of flexible commercial space.
  
  
• The City of London Corporation granted approval for Landsec’s plans for the demolition of the1970s Hill House office building and the delivery of a new net-zero 20-storey mixed-use building, including 400,000 sq ft of office space.
  
  
• Student accommodation provider Unite received planning permission for the Meridian Square development in Stratford, which will include 952 beds, commercial space, workspace and retail space in a 41-storey building, as well as improvements to Stratford Underground Station. The scheme has a target completion date of 2028.
  
  
• Submissions for BusinessLDN’s Building London Planning Awards, in partnership with the Mayor of London, are now open. This year’s awards include seven categories and the winners will be announced at a reception later this year.

• Pocket Living announced senior management changes, with founder and CEO Marc Vlessing appointed chair and former chief financial officer Paul Rickard taking on the role of Managing Director.
  
  
• Places for People appointed Judy Hardy as Chief Risk Officer, having taken on the role in an interim capacity for seven months.
  
  
• Network Rail announced three new non-executive directors joining the board from July, including TfL’s Chief Capital Officer, Stuart Harvey.
  
  
• Former Tesco Chief Executive Jason Tarry is John Lewis Partnership’s new chairman, taking over from Sharon White.

LONDONERS' PRIORITIES 

Poll to Poll: With opinion pollsters working overtime, recent results are pretty consistently recording substantial leads for Sadiq Khan over Susan Hall. This hasn’t stopped some – including Khan’s campaign team – pouring cold water on the scale of leads. That’s why this by academic Rob Ford is well worth a read – grab a coffee and a comfy seat, and enjoy.

Below the surface: yet so much of the coverage of polls is (understandably) focused on voting intention, but scratch away and there’s a lot of rich information on what matters to voters which the parties will be studying closely. We take a look at some of the recent data below.

London Life: YouGov/Mile End Institute… asked what is best and worst about living in the capital, ‘access to public transport’, the ‘range of activities and things to do’ and the ‘diversity of population and culture’ came out top. People’s top three descriptions of London are ‘expensive’, ‘diverse’ and ‘crowded’.

Leaving London: a quarter said they wouldn’t be living in London in five years, with over half of these citing expense as the main reason for leaving. The most likely relocation destination is the south east (more than the rest of England put together), or abroad.

For better or worse: Londoners are feeling pretty negative - net balances on whether a list of issues have got better or worse are: housing (-61), public transport (-24), environment (-17), crime (-55), NHS/health (-63), and schools/education (-26).

Khan’t Get No Satisfaction: in further QMUL/YouGov polling, Londoners are unhappy with the performance of both the Mayor and the Government. Khan’s balance is -16 (with older voters and those in outer London the most dissatisfied) – for the Government, it’s even worse (-55). Policing, crime and safety; provision of affordable quality homes and provision of health services come out as the three most important issues facing London.

Good job, bad job: Better news for Khan in Centre for London/Savanta’s polling – with roughly the same number of voters satisfied as unsatisfied with his performance (38% versus 37%). More than half of Londoners think Sadiq has done a good job of making London more diverse, multicultural and tolerant, managing the transport network and protecting green spaces. Londoners on the whole think negatively about Khan’s record on tackling homelessness, housing and dealing with knife crime/gangs.

Raising awareness: The same poll revealed how few Londoners knew about the Mayoral election – only 40% of under 35s were aware.

Cost of living: ITV London/Survation… the biggest issues influencing how Londoners vote – ‘cost of living’ came out top (41%), dwarfing ‘crime’ (12%), ‘health’, (11%), ‘economy’ (9%), ‘housing’ (9%) and ‘ULEZ’ (6%).

Geography (and age) matters!: delve deeper, and cost of living is a lower priority for over 65s (who are instead more concerned about crime), but a greater concern in inner London. Health, crime and ULEZ are marginally greater concerns for people in outer London. 

WE RECOMMEND

• London’s last unlisted cab shelter finally gets protected.
• The source of London’s TV and radio signals – the Crystal Palace transmitter.
• A look at the overdue reform of Council Tax.
• The Economist’s take – Khan’s London offers a taste of Starmer’s Britain.
• How the Chinese property crisis could rock The City.
• Which lunchtime food of choice is seeing Londoners queue for up to half on hour.

IS BUILDING AFFORDABLE HOMES BECOMING FINANCIALLY IMPOSSIBLE? 

This week, LCA client Avison Young was featured in the Financial Times, both online and print. UK President, Nick Walkley joins the discussion on the affordable housing crisis, alongside other industry leaders. Nick states that with public funding falling short, now more than ever we need constructive action from government and emphasises the importance of collaboration between public and private sectors. Read the full piece here.

UNIVERSITIES AS A CATALYST FOR CHANGE 

Our client, Felicity Ranger, Office Leasing Manager for Stratford Cross at Lendlease, was featured in EG, discussing how London's real estate landscape is buzzing with a fascinating trend: universities on the hunt for office spaces. Felicity dives into the expansion of academic institutions, especially in areas offering competitive pricing.

THE COUNTDOWN IS ON

Just one month left until the inaugural Creative Industries Property Summit (CIPS) opens its doors. Get ready to be inspired by leaders from both real estate and creative sectors who are driving change and shaping the future in this one-day event. As Communications Partners, we are delighted to support CIPS, brought to you by Movers & Shakers, who are at the forefront of driving positive change through collaboration in the built environment. Set your reminders, make your plans, and use our exclusive code LCA0705 to secure a discount on your tickets here.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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