LDN Weekly – Issue 310 – 03 April 2024 – WHERE'S THE GRAND LONDON EXPRESS?

Dear Reader,

Yesterday’s commitment by Sadiq Khan to extend the Superloop bus network from Lewisham to Elephant & Castle hasn’t been universally welcomed. And a good chunk of the criticism is directed at what they perceive as a paucity of ambition, seeing a bus route as a poor substitute for the Bakerloo Line extension (BLE), whose route it mirrors.

To give Khan credit, delivering on a new Superloop bus network is something he can do quickly if he’s re-elected – Transport for London can just get on and do it. Nor do I think for one minute Khan has given up on the BLE. Instead, he knows better than most that no mayoral candidate can credibly promise to build it, as the city hasn’t the money to pay the estimated £8bn cost.

So again we face the age old question – how is London to fund new infrastructure? London’s new and upgraded transport projects since 2000 have almost exclusively been funded via substantial support from central Government. TfL is good at covering day to day costs and maintenance from fares and other income (and recently delivered its first operating surplus), but it relies on the Treasury for the big ticket items - new lines, modern trains and signalling, DLR extensions and station rebuilds.

The two big outliers are the Elizabeth Line and the Northern Line extension to Battersea Power Station – both required more complicated funding mechanisms that saw London, Londoners and the capital’s businesses contribute to the cost. But both feel like exceptions – built in spite of the odds against them, and only happening through sheer bloody mindedness by key individuals and organisations that broke the Treasury’s resistance. 

However, the pipeline is running rather dry. That’s despite London’s wish list – as well as BLE this includes extending the DLR to Thamesmead, a new West London Overground line, Sutton Tramlink and Crossrail 2. All would unlock serious development opportunities – up to 110,000 new homes for the BLE alone. But the Government shows little inclination to fund these projects. Nor, for that matter, has a Labour Party potentially on the cusp of power.

So how will London fund new infrastructure if central Government is unwilling to get out the chequebook? A solution would be to allow London to keep more of its own income and decide how to spend it. Not only would the city reap the financial benefits of investment decisions – creating clear incentives - but it would free up a central government reluctant to spend big bucks in the capital.

In the time London took to build the Elizabeth Line, Paris built five equivalent RER lines. Paris isn’t stopping there – their Grand Paris Express project will see four new lines, 68 new stations and 200km of new track – including a new outer orbital line. With Crossrail open, and Crossrail 2 looking decades away, London risks being left behind by our near neighbour and (friendly) rival.

The current Mayoral campaign has once again exposed how London government’s chronic lack of financial independence makes it impossible for the city to get on and copy Paris. All the candidates surely agree major devolution of fiscal powers is essential if London is to build the infrastructure it desperately needs. How London actually gets more control is a much harder question to answer.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON'S WATER LATEST

In hot water: Thames Water, which services 16 million people in London and the Thames Valley, is facing an uncertain future, having entered into talks about a financial restructuring in a bid to save it from insolvency.

Water under the bridge: In February, Thames Water – saddled with debts thought to be around £14bn - sought an agreement with regulator Ofwat to allow an increase in bills of 40%. Then, last week, following Ofwat blocking the increase, the company’s main shareholders refused to provide £500m of emergency funding. Faced with a ‘standoff’ with Ofwat, the main shareholders have dubbed Thames ‘uninvestable’.

Down the plughole: Company CEO Chris Weston said nationalisation is ‘a long way’ off, yet chair of the Commons Environment Select Committee Sir Robert Goodwill warned that the Government is ‘ready’ to intervene. Senior Cabinet Minister - and MP in an area served by Thames - Michael Gove has certainly made his thoughts clear, accusing Thames of having acted in an ‘arrogant way’ and having ‘taken advantage of’ customers. Labour has urged the Government to ‘stabilise’ Thames Water, while the Lib Dems have called for immediate government intervention ahead of nationalisation.

Troubled waters: Thames Water came under further fire this weekend, with rowers participating in the annual Oxford-Cambridge Boat Race warned against entering the water. With TV pictures of the race beamed around the world, campaign group River Action found the stretch of the Thames where the race takes place has ‘alarmingly high levels of dangerous E coli bacteria’. Some rowers were reported to have become unwell in the run up to the race, although it is unclear if this is related to river quality.

Flushed away: Earlier this year, analysis by the GLA found 6,590 hours of sewage spills in the last nine months of 2023, four times the number of hours for the same period in 2022. Shadow Environment Secretary Steve Reed has said that in government, Labour would put water companies under special measures to clean up water, strengthen regulation and give Ofwat more powers – not quite renationalisation though.

LONDON POLITICS ROUNDUP

Baker’s dozen: With 29 days until polling day, 13 candidates are officially vying to be the next Mayor of London – seven fewer than 2021’s bumper field. As well as the major parties, joining the race are some independents including Count Binface, who promises to bring some levity to the campaign. But there are no Corbyns (Piers nor Jeremy) or Laurence Fox, who failed to make the ballot paper after submitting incorrect paperwork – needless to say he’s not happy.

Poll to poll: Two more Mayoral polls….Hope Not Hate/Focaldata has Sadiq Khan leading Susan Hall 45%-21%, with ITV London/Survation has the two at 44%-26%, with the Greens and Lib Dems on 7%, Reform on 5%. While both have Khan polling lower than in recent weeks, he still holds a substantial lead with just four weeks to go.

It ain’t over till it’s over: Undeterred, Hall continues to push the message of change, repeating the line that Sadiq Khan isn’t listening to Londoners. Her campaign is unlikely to have been helped by a spiky interview in Prospect - in which Hall appeared to confuse Crawley and Croydon, and dismiss Islamophobic tweets as just ‘hurty words’ – although it’s not clear how many potential Tory voters would ever read Prospect.

Primarked out: Despite this, there continues to be a possible route to victory for Hall, who appears to be particularly keen on the votes of cleaners, builders, Primark shoppers, fans of reality TV, and those who don’t care that much about the environment. That being said, former Chancellor George Osborne has accused Tory HQ of having ‘given up’ on her campaign.

Jockeying for position: Meanwhile, Khan visited the Greengates equine therapy centre, providing the perfect, if somewhat predictable, opportunity to push his ‘two horse race’ narrative. Khan pledged more police officers, an Erasmus-style overseas study scheme for young Londoners, launched a new jobs plan and attacked Hall’s opposition to tall buildings as threatening the delivery of 12,000 homes.

Star Baker: Khan also promised a new Superloop express bus link along the line of the proposed Bakerloo Line extension, leading some to question where this leaves the proposed tube project. Hall dubbed the whole thing a ‘superflop’.

Road to hell: Reform’s Howard Cox vowed to sack police chiefs that were too woke and Lib Dem Rob Blackie wants to re-name the Silvertown Tunnel the ‘Sadiq Khan Motorway’ in response to the Mayor’s claim to be the greenest mayor ever.

Fallout: Last week’s controversy over the Conservative Party attack video on London rumbles on. Susan Hall’s campaign reportedly had no input into the production with one bemused Tory party source left wondering if there’s actually a ‘Labour mole working in CCHQ’.

Lesser from America: With the video even making headlines over the pond, it’s little wonder highly-regarded travel journo Simon Calder has warned about the impact on foreign tourists coming to the city. As a reminder – London attracts over 17 million overseas visits every year and tourism is estimated to contribute to over 10% of the city’s GDP.

Wipeout: As well as the race for City Hall, eyes are also on the looming General Election. But the outlook is little better for the Conservatives after two recent MRP polls. The first, a Survation/Best for Britain poll, projected Labour on course to win 468 seats, leaving the Tories with fewer than 100 MPs and London a Conservative MP free city for the first time ever. LSE’s Professor Tony Travers described the Tory Party in London as “close to having a near death experience” although a wipeout in London is an outcome not everyone thinks is likely to materialise. The second poll, by YouGov, is only very mildly better reading for the Tories – predicting they’d hold on to just five seats in the capital.

• Westminster City Council approved Lazari Investments’ plans to redevelop the former Fenwick’s department store on Bond Street. The developer proposed a ‘deep retrofit’ of the five-storey building, delivering up to 175,043 sq ft of office space through adding five additional floors, while reducing retail space by around 61%. The application received objections from both Historic England and the GLA over proposed height, bulk and harm to the nearby Mayfair conservation area.
  
  
• In contrast to the above, Westminster City Council has refused consent for The Pollen Estate’s plans to demolish two existing buildings and redevelop a new single eight-storey office building at 18-20 Savile Row. Planning officers recommended the application be refused as the plans do not comply with the council’s new planning policies in favour of ‘retrofit first’.
  
  
• The Secretary of State has approved Chalegrove Properties’ plans to add seven storeys to its 48-storey residential building at 225 Marsh Wall in Canary Wharf on recovered appeal. The building is currently under construction and topped out in October 2023, with the additional floors adding 58 homes (35% affordable). Chalegrove appealed Tower Hamlets Council’s decision to refuse in August 2022 which was then recovered by the Secretary of State in March 2023.
  
  
• London Square has bought the 0.74a site of the former St Wilfrid’s Care Home in Chelsea for £54m. The six-storey building covering 38,000 sq ft was closed in 2019 by the freeholder the Congregation of the Daughters of the Cross of Liege, with a new residential development of around 130,000 sq ft indicated by a feasibility study. The developer plans to open a residents’ consultation in due course.
  
  
• The City of London Corporation is seeking a new design team to lead the £17.5m refurbishment and ‘revamp’ of the Guildhall Yard East office complex, next to the Guildhall. The tender is part of the City of London’s ongoing efforts to refurbish their estate in a bid to diversify the office-led estates of the Square Mile. 
  
  
• The NLA has opened submissions for its New London Awards 2024 which celebrate the very best in new projects across a wide range of built environment sectors. Interested parties have until Friday 24 May to submit their projects for consideration by the NLA’s esteemed international panel of experts.

• Nicholas Cullinan is to be the British Museum’s new Director, following approval from the museum’s Board and the Government. Cullinan joins from the National Portrait Gallery where he has been Director since 2015.
  
  
• Director at Fosters & Partners, Spencer de Grey, has stepped down from the company’s partnership board to ‘encourage a new generation’ into the leading architecture practice. He remains on the firm’s management and design boards.
  
  
• The Cabinet Office has appointed Saurabh Bhandari as Director of Property Delivery and Transformation, joining from the Department for Health and Social Care where he oversaw the delivery of the New Hospitals Programme.
  
  
• Former Finance Director at Lendlease, Kim Sides, has joined Royal Bam Group as Executive Director of Construction, UK and Ireland. She replaces Bam Group veteran James Wimpenny who retired earlier this year.
  
  
• Andy Hay is to become the new Chief Executive of consultancy Hollis, taking over from Digby Flower who led the firm as interim CEO.
  
  
• Jerome Frost has formally begun his new role as group Chair of Arup, having previously chaired the firm’s UK, Middle East, India and Africa division.
  
  
• Chief Executive of the Houses of Parliament Restoration & Renewal Delivery Authority, David Goldstone, is standing down after nearly four years in the role. 
  
  
• Former Political Editor of the Evening Standard, Charles Reiss, has sadly died at 82. Former Standard colleague Joe Murphy remembers Charles’s life here.

CANDIDATE WATCH

• Andrew Pelling is to be the Liberal Democrats’ parliamentary candidate for Croydon East. Pelling is a former Conservative Member of Parliament for Croydon Centre, a Tory London Assembly member and Deputy Leader of Croydon Council, but was also elected a Labour councillor on Croydon Council for the Waddon ward.
  
  
• Ward councillor for Hanwell Broadway on Ealing Council, Yoel Gordon, has been selected as Labour’s candidate for Esher & Walton. The seat is one of the Liberal Democrats’ top targets at the next General Election.

SECOND STAIRCASES UPDATE

It’s about time: After much waiting, the Government has finally published updated fire safety guidance for second staircases in high-rise residential buildings.

Volatile market: The new guidance was first mooted for new buildings in 2022 when the Government’s consultation looked to mandate two staircases for blocks above 30 metres (or 10 storeys). This was then amended in July 2023 for buildings over 18 metres (or seven storeys), after groups including the National Fire Chiefs Council warned the Government’s original proposals risked slow evacuations from burning buildings.

Long time coming: For many developers, the second staircases guidance cements what the built environment sector had already anticipated. Most notably, Berkeley Group warned in March 2023 that their future schemes would be low-rise if a second staircase mandate was introduced. Two of the developers’ schemes in Lambeth and Waltham Forest have since been redesigned to include second staircases. City Hall analysis reported last month that uncertainty over the technical guidance was holding up the delivery of around 38,000 new homes in London.

Looming, not booming: Developers have a 30-month ‘grace period’ to go back to the drawing board on any new housing schemes being worked up. Given that the second staircase guidance is only in place from September 2026, this could result in many high-rise residential buildings being delivered without a second staircase, and therefore may affect how developers perform financially: the Government’s own impact assessment forecasts a £2.7bn hit to the industry from adopting its preferred policy option.

Rules or guidelines? It should be noted that the second staircases guidance is a prescriptive recommendation to developers on best practice in ensuring safe residential buildings and complying with the legally enforced Building Regulations. As part of the Approved Document B on fire safety, it forms part of a wider set of standards which planning authorities, building inspectors and building control operators will be taking into account as part of their work.

Gove to the rescue? With schemes likely to go ahead with single staircases, here’s some calming words for developers from the Secretary of State on this potential fracas-in-waiting. In October last year Gove said: ‘I expect lenders, managing agents, insurers, and others to behave accordingly, and not to impose onerous additional requirements, hurdles or criteria on single-staircase buildings...’

Not messing about: Elsewhere, the Government has launched the first legal action against private developers to force payment for dangerous cladding remediation works. Three developers of high-rise buildings in London and Manchester are being taken to property tribunals for a combined bill of £69m, through new powers included in the Building Safety Act.

Still burning away: The Government’s own figures on building safety remediation for February 2024 found that 1,911 social housing blocks in England over 11 metres in height face ‘life-critical problems’ with dangerous external cladding.

WE RECOMMEND

• Londonist’s piece on parts of London that aren’t where they say they are.
• The Times’ article on George Peabody, the housing association that he founded and the lessons for today’s housing crisis.
• Fears over ‘univestable’ Stock Market as more firms tipped to leave the City
• Croydon is Britain’s top beauty spot, say the Times
• War on nimbyism: Keir Starmer targets voters who want more housing
• Give London’s Mayor more powers to keep and spend tax raised in the capital, say BusinessLDN.
• The lights are coming back on for a resurgent Oxford Street
• Listen to BBC London’s crack political team’s take on the race for City Hall – Having a Mayor.
• Some of our favourite London April Fool stories –  plans for an extension of the Victoria Line to Clapham….every London Underground line to be renamed….and London to get a brand new borough called Sledding. Were you fooled?

HELP SHAPE THE LEGACY OF THE LONDON 2012 OLYMPICS AT LEE VALLEY

LCA’s long-standing client Lee Valley Regional Park Authority are seeking an experienced, confident and capable Corporate Communications professional to create and run the Authority’s communications campaigns, aimed at showcasing its 26 miles of world-class sport and leisure venues and iconic green spaces. More information on the role can be found on the Lee Valley website here.

TWO STAIRCASES GOOD, ONE STAIRCASE BAD?

Our client, James McNay, Director of Fire Safety at Hydrock, was featured in key property trade titles, including Construction News and React News, earlier this week, furthering the debate about the long-awaited amendments to the Approved Document B. James advocates for the importance of adopting a holistic approach to building safety and focusing on functional requirements, rather than relying solely on guidance.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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