LDN Weekly – Issue 307 – 14 March 2024 – Fever Pitch

Dear Reader,

With Londoners going to the polls seven weeks tomorrow to elect a Mayor and 25 Assembly Members, we’re really entering the business end of the campaign. Next Tuesday, the formal pre-election period starts – a key milestone when councils and City Hall wind down their formal activities (although dealing with strategic planning applications will continue), and the politics and candidates take a front seat. As we cover in today’s LDN, the last week has seen a surge of new announcements, claims and commitments from the runners and riders.

Yet while 2 May is Mayoral election polling day (as well as the day Police & Crime Commissioners, some local councils and other metro Mayors beyond the M25 are up for re-election), Westminster is still full of speculation about the date of the General Election. If it is to be on 2 May, there are just 13 days left in which to call it.

Glancing at the polls, you’d think there’s no way Rishi Sunak is going to call an election any time soon. And it’s pretty unprecedented in modern times for a Prime Minister to do so earlier than necessary when so far behind. But I guess what is also unprecedented is just how far the Government is behind in the polls at this stage in a Parliament.

Just today, there’s a story reporting some backbench Tories pinning hopes on England winning the Euros and Team GB bagging medals at the Olympics as leading to a more positive landscape in a few months’ time. Perhaps it might turn out like this, but there’s much that could go the other way – continued economic woes, another 1.1 million coming off fixed term mortgages, Reform eating away at Tory support, growing internal unrest within Tory ranks. Or just the fear of the unknown – in Harold Macmillan’s famous words, “events, dear boy, events”.

So the Prime Minister faces a decision few would envy, stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either way, he is running out of road.

Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight

nb@londoncommunications.co.uk

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LONDON POLITICS ROUNDUP

Fifty days to go… With polling day just seven weeks tomorrow, the race for City Hall has stepped up a gear. Tory hopeful Susan Hall is majoring on women’s safety, with an eye-catching pledge to appoint a Women’s Commissioner if she’s elected, endorsed by campaigner Georgie Clarke.

Rough and the smooth:  Hall also came in for flak for leaked remarks saying police misconduct should be dealt with 'behind closed doors'. Adding to Hall’s problems, former Minister for London Paul Scully continued his criticisms of the Conservative Party’s attitude towards the city, claiming 'we have to show respect to the electorate' and that 'our approach to the London Mayoral election showed how we fell short in this'.

Khanival: Elsewhere, Sadiq Khan is squeezing the last drops out of the City Hall machine before pre-election period kicks in. He published a report commissioned from the New Economics Foundation which found that councils could save £1.5bn in temporary accommodation costs by buying 10,000 affordable homes. The report says Government could also save £750m from the initiative.

Lost receipts: Meanwhile, London Councils has expressed ‘extreme concern’ about the Chancellor’s decision not to extend the policy which allows councils to retain 100% of Right-to-Buy receipts. Cllr Darren Rodwell, London Councils’ Executive Member for Regeneration, Housing & Planning, warned that the failure to extend the policy would ‘undermine borough’s resources’ to deliver their own social housing projects.

Good air, bad air: The Mayor has trumpeted improved air quality in London resulting from ULEZ, although defended himself from those questioning why no formal evaluation will be published this side of polling day. Susan Hall dubbed the announcement ‘trumped up nonsense’.

Paying your way: Road user charging is back in the news, with the London Assembly Transport Committee publishing a report on the topic and the London Chamber of Commerce calling on the next Mayor to combine ULEZ and the Congestion Charge into a single road pricing scheme. The full London Assembly made its views known, agreeing unanimously on a motion opposing any move to pay per mile road user charging. We await the mayoral manifestos with interest!

London Borough of Culture: The two latest winners of one of Khan’s signature programmes, the London Borough of Culture, were announced this week. Wandsworth takes on the mantle in 2025 with Haringey following in 2027. The two boroughs will follow in the footsteps of Waltham Forest (2019), Brent (2020), Lewisham (2022) and Croydon (2023).

After hours: Much focus at the moment on the merits (or not) of London’s claim to be a 24 hour city, with the Mayor and his Night Czar Amy Lame coming under pressure from critics. Pieces in the New Statesman, The Critic, Guardian, City Am and from Tory Mayoral candidate Susan Hall and former Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick have expressed concern at London’s nightlife losing its lustre, unleashing a fierce debate about who and what is to blame. 

Quiet times: Low traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) are in the news again, with Lambeth suspending a controversial scheme in Streatham. Leaks of a report commissioned by Rishi Sunak last year on the impact of LTNs sees the Guardian’s coverage talking up the positives and The Times majoring on the negatives.

Changes at the top: In last week’s by-election, caused by Damian Egan’s resignation to fight the Kingswood by-election, Labour’s Brenda Dacres was elected Mayor of Lewisham. Labour’s share of the vote was down, with the Greens and Lib Dems pushing the Conservatives into fourth place.

More churn: Elsewhere, Sutton’s long-standing leader Ruth Dombey is stepping down in May after running the council for 12 years. Dombey is currently the second longest-serving council leader in the city (after Bexley’s Baroness O’Neill).  With the changes in Lewisham and Sutton, and the leaders of Redbridge and Barking & Dagenham likely to enter Parliament in the coming months, we look like entering a further period of churn in London’s local government leadership.

Solidarity: London MPs from across the political spectrum joined in condemnation of remarks allegedly made by Conservative Party donor Frank Hester, who said that Hackney North and Stoke Newington MP Diane Abbott made ‘you just want to hate all Black women.’ Mother of the House and outgoing Labour MP for Camberwell and Peckham, Harriet Harman, labelled the comments as a ‘toxic mix of racism and sexism.’ Abbot, who has been an MP since 1987, is currently sitting as an independent having had the Labour whip removed in April 2023.

RENTERS REFORM BILL UPDATE

Simmered and sown: Reports and rumours have been circulating for some weeks now on the ongoing delays facing the Government’s flagship Renters Reform Bill. Most recently, a sizeable group of rebel Conservative backbench MPs tabled amendments which would effectively undermine the Government’s flagship ambitions.

Broken lines: The Sun reported last Friday that the Bill was ‘on the brink of collapse’ after Government ministers’ attempts to appease rebel MPs with new measures reportedly failed to result in a compromise. One ‘Whitehall insider’ is quoted saying the rebel group is holding the Government ‘to ransom.’

Quick reminder: The Renters Reform Bill would abolish Section 21 of the Housing Act 1988, which currently allows landlords to end an assured shorthold tenancy, giving notice of eviction by a defined date (the so-called ‘no fault eviction). The Bill also establishes a new Private Rented Sector Ombudsman service, abolishes fixed-term tenancy agreements, and grants tenants more rights to keep pets in rented properties.

Pressing demands: The rebel group, which numbers around 50 Conservative MPs, is seeking changes to the Bill which would neuter the Government’s original ambitions, including introducing a minimum tenancy period of at least four months before renters can give notice and allowing ‘hearsay’ evidence in eviction claims for antisocial behaviour.

That’s the rub: Coordinated by Conservative MP for Totnes, Anthony Mangnall, one of the biggest gripes among rebels is the abolition of fixed-term tenancies. He argues that the rebel amendments are ‘about trying to find the right balance’ between renters’ reforms and landlords’ rights as property owners.

Quick flashback: April 2019 - former Prime Minister Theresa May first announced the Government would end Section 21 ‘no-fault’ evictions. She called the abolition an ‘important step’ which would ‘not only protect tenants from unethical behaviour, but also give them the long-term certainty and the peace of mind they deserve.’

‘Ungovernable’: Leading campaign group, the Renters Reform Coalition, spared no blushes in responding to the news of the Bill’s potential collapse. Campaign Manager Tom Darling accusing the Government of ‘prioritising party unity over desperate renters.’

Saviour from the Left? Shadow Housing and Planning Minister, Matthew Pennycook, offered to come to the Government’s rescue after the latest news broke. Pennycook said that Labour would ‘lend them the votes’ to defeat any wrecking amendments, stating that ‘private renters should not pay the price for a divided and fractious Tory Party.’

So, this is the end? With a General Election around the corner, if the Renters Reform Bill does run into the sand, Labour has committed to abolish no-fault evictions on their first day in office, with reforms that go even further than those pursued by the current Government.

Impending bloom: Labour’s housing spokesperson in the House of Lords, Baroness Taylor of Stevenage, confirmed that once (or if) the Bill makes it to the upper house, there will be ‘a slew of amendments’ to ‘make the best’ of the Bill - while adding that Labour would be ‘changing the system’ if it wins the next election.

Meanwhile: Amendments or not, Section 21 notices continue to play a major role in homelessness – official figures show 9,457 households were facing homelessness in the third quarter of 2023 due to Section 21 notices, a 49% increase on the previous year. Citizens Advice and StepChange, among others, have also raised concerns about the growing number of private renters in arrears.

• The Mayor of London is seeking a new development partner to implement the five-year plan for the Royal Docks. The plans include over £2bn of public and private investment for the 30-acre site, accelerated delivery of more than 36,000 homes, commercial and employment space at Silvertown and Royal Albert Dock, as well as completing the Royal Docks Corridor and Silvertown Bridge projects. Also included are measures to complete a new commercial shipyard at Albert Island.
  
  
• The City of London Corporation’s Court of Common Council has formally approved the City Plan 2040. The new plan proposes the delivery of over 1.2m sqm of additional office floorspace by 2040, the transformation of the Square Mile into a culture and leisure destination, as well as embedding targets for achieving net zero by 2040. The finalised plan will now be published for public consultation ahead of examination by the Planning Inspectorate and Secretary of State, which the City of London expects to take place in autumn 2024 ahead of adoption in summer 2025.
  
  
• The Earls Court Development Company (ECDC) has published designs for the first phase of its 40-acre masterplan to transform the former exhibition centre’s site into a new mixed-use neighbourhood. The first phase comprises 1,000 homes across a range of tenures (targeting 35% affordable), a 42-storey landmark building, an anchor cultural venue, workspace and 20 acres of public realm.
  
  
• New amendments submitted by Greystar to its 1,624-home (35% affordable) Build-to-Rent development at the site of the former Peek Freans biscuit factory in Bermondsey have been granted permission by Southwark Council. The developer has added 88 more homes, including 30 for social rent, as well as redesigning the buildings to include second staircases. The scheme, formerly owned by Grosvenor, was initially rejected in 2019 by Southwark Council over its initial affordable housing allocation of 30%, but later consented in 2020 after being called-in by the Mayor of London and the developer agreeing to increase the affordable housing allocation to 35%.
  
  
• Westminster City Council has rejected Criterion Capital’s plans to convert the eight-storey former HM Passport Office in Victoria into a 357-bedroom hotel. Operating through the Eccleston Square hotels brand, Criterion’s plans were rejected on grounds of the loss of office space in the Central Activities Zone (CAZ) which had potential to be refurbished and retrofitted to a higher-grade standard.
  
  
• Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust has started the search for a development manager to lead the delivery of a state-of-the-art teaching hospital and new neighbourhood on the St Mary’s Hospital site in Paddington. The LCA client launched a first phase of engagement on the need for a new hospital with the local community in January this year.
  
  
• Waltham Forest Council has adopted the first part of its new Local Plan. The plan affords for 27,000 homes to be delivered, flood risk reduction schemes, community infrastructure, and the preservation of green spaces. The second part of the Local Plan covering site allocations is currently under review and will be put out to consultation later this year.
  
  
• Halcyon has submitted plans to the London Legacy Development Corporation for a new eight-storey co-living scheme in Hackney Wick delivering 339 homes (35% affordable) and 1,021 sqm of commercial floor space. The site is the former home of the Clarnico Works Confectionary Factory. Half of the workspace provided on-site will be affordable.

• As mentioned above, Cllr Ruth Dombey is stepping down as Leader of Liberal Democrat-led Sutton Council. She will remain as ward councillor for Sutton North having decided that ‘now is the right time to step down and pass on the baton.’ A new Leader will be elected at Sutton’s Full Council annual meeting on 20 May 2024.
  
  
• Former Prime Minister and MP for Maidenhead, Theresa May, is standing down at the next General Election. As local MP for 27 years, May becomes the 60th Conservative MP to announce they will be leaving Parliament at the election. 
  
  
• British Land has appointed William Rucker as its Chair Designate, taking over formally from incumbent Chair, Tim Score. Rucker currently serves as Chair of ICG and the brewery group Marston’s.
  
  
• Join Chief Executive of Marks & Spencer, Katie Bickerstaffe, is to stand down from the role after joining in 2022 to lead M&S alongside Stuart Machin.
  
  
• Madeleine McDougall, Head of Commercial Real Estate and Housing at Lloyds Bank, has resigned after seven years leading Lloyds’ property division. She remains in a part-time advisory position while Lloyds seeks a replacement.
  
  
• Skanska has appointed Andrew English as their new Managing Director for Infrastructure, joining from AtkinsRéalis. He replaces current division lead Jonathan Wilcox who is joining HS2 delivery partner Costain.
  
  
• Peabody has appointed Phil Day to the role of Chief Financial Officer joining from his current position as Group Finance Director at The Guinness Partnership.
  
  
• Concert promoter and music industry entrepreneur Vince Power has died aged 76. Power’s Mean Fiddler Group owned and operated several high-profile London venues such as the Astoria and Jazz Café, and managed Reading, Leeds and Finsbury Park festivals.

CANDIDATE WATCH

• Independent mayoral candidate and social justice policy advisor, Rayhan Haque, has dropped out of the contest to become Mayor of London. Haque chose not to explicitly endorse a candidate but stated he would not wish ‘the progressive vote to be splintered.’
  
  
• Ward councillor for Kilburn, Lloyd Hatton, is running as Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidate for South Dorset, which was last held by the party in 2010.
  
  
• Former Lambeth Labour councillor and businessman Kevin Craig has been selected as the party’s candidate to contest Central Suffolk and North Ipswich at the next election.
  
  
• London Labour has selected Croydon Council’s Cllr Maddie Hanson as the party’s candidate for Croydon and Sutton at the London Assembly elections.

TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE LATEST

New and improved: A new report by Southwark Council, Lewisham Council and Central London Forward on the Bakerloo Line Upgrade and Extension (BLUE) was launched in Parliament last week. The upgrade would replace the line’s existing rolling stock, as well as delivering signalling improvements, while the extension would see the line continue in a tunnel from Elephant & Castle to Lewisham in a first phase and to Hayes (Bromley) in a second phase. The extension would include the delivery of 14 new stations, with the Lewisham to Hayes section using existing Network Rail tracks.

Long and winding road tube line: a southwards extension was first proposed in 1913, with Transport for London (TfL) working since the late 2000s on an alignment via new stations along the Old Kent Road, New Cross Gate and Lewisham. Back in 2021, the Government agreed to the safeguarding of the proposed route.

What’s in it for me? The project would create up to 9,700 jobs, unlock the delivery of an additional 20,400 homes and almost 189,500 sqm of additional commercial floorspace, and contribute £1.5bn a year to the economy.

Money problems: While the project is a key missing piece in the city’s transport network, currently no funding is on the table to make it a reality. Coming in at a price tag of up to £8bn, it doesn’t come cheap. Despite the good news that TfL is expected to end 2023/24 with an operating surplus for the first time ever, the Mayor has been clear that major capital projects such as BLUE will not go ahead without a long-term funding settlement from the Government.

On the buses: It’s not all doom and gloom, however, with the Mayor this week opening the final sections of the Superloop network of express buses. The network is comprised of four rebranded bus routes and six new ones, linking stations, town centres and hospitals in Outer London, where public transport provision leaves a lot to be desired.  

Finally facing my Waterloo: Lambeth Council and Network Rail have unveiled the ‘Waterloo Station vision’, setting out their aspirations for the future of the terminus and the surrounding area. The radical proposals include improvements to the station itself, including a new concourse and making use of the undercroft, as well as 40 enhanced walking and cycling routes, an improved bus and taxi interchange and more green and public spaces.

And in the East: There’s only a few more days to give TfL your views on extending the DLR from Beckton to Thamesmead, plans which could unlock the delivery of between 25,000 and 30,000 new homes. Alas, this is another scheme which requires Treasury funding.

WE RECOMMEND

• Chief Executive of the Lee Valley Regional Park Authority Shaun Dawson’s piece for OnLondon on the VeloPark’s Olympic legacy.
• Keir Starmer’s plans for an overhaul of government working.
• How much office space is vacant in New York City compared to London and how our friends across the pond are tackling their housing crisis.
• MP for Chelsea & Fulham and Minister for London Greg Hands’ campaign to save a local delicacy.
• The warning from Fire Commissioner Andy Roe about buildings that are still clad with dangerous materials, nearly seven years after the Grenfell Tower fire.

MOOD FROM MIPIM

LCA’s Chief Executive and co-founder, Jonny Popper, and Jane Groom (Partner & Co-Managing Director, Politics, Engagement and Planning) are currently at MIPIM.  Many baguettes have been eaten, much wine has been consumed, and both have spoken on the London Stand – so far so normal.  The early take-aways from Jonny and Jane are:

1. The London Stand is buzzing again! Much more so than in 2022 or 2023.
2. The ‘banging the drum for London’ is going well, as Opportunity London provides a banner and strong messaging for people to rally around.
3. There are definitely people and organisations usually here who are aren’t this year. The success of Leeds-based UKREiiF is having an impact on the UK crowd at MIPIM.
4. A cautious optimism does seem to be returning, although being in the beautiful Cannes sunshine after months of winter and rain probably has a something to do with it.
5. MIPIM still has its place.  People are relaxed.  You can have really valuable conversations and make new connections in a way you just don’t elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of LCA

Additionally, LCA's proactive outreach efforts resulted in coverage in BE News, highlighting emerging female talents within the industry for clients such as WilkinsonEyre, Stanhope, Stride Treglown and more. This extended reach not only amplifies the voices of these rising women but also underscores LCA's commitment to promoting diversity in the sector.

These remarkable women represent a fraction of the talent within our industry, and their achievements serve as inspiration for aspiring professionals across the property sector.

AMBITIOUS FOR HOUNSLOW

Last week, we were delighted to host Councillor Tom Bruce, Cabinet Member for Regeneration and Development at the London Borough of Hounslow in our latest series of breakfast briefings with London council leaders. Cllr Bruce spoke passionately on the council’s progressive and proactive vision to drive regeneration and economic growth in order to deliver an inclusive, diverse, resilient, and sustainable economy in Hounslow. Working closely in partnership with communities and developers to unlock good growth, and supporting businesses to grow, Hounslow plays an active role in enabling and accelerating delivery. Each month, we bring the shapers and makers across our sector to our Breakfast Waffle series. Interested in attending future events? Get in touch marketing@londoncommunications.co.uk.

Photo courtesy of LCA

BRINGING TOGETHER REAL ESTATE AND THE CREATIVE INDUSTRIES

LCA is the Communications Partner for the inaugural Creative Industries Property Summit (CIPS), taking place on 7 May at King’s Place, King’s Cross. Presented by Movers & Shakers Property Networking Forum, the event will offer a day of insightful discussions and networking opportunities, promising to shape the future of both real estate and the creative industry. Use our exclusive code LCA0705 to secure a discount on your tickets here.

LDN CONTRIBUTORS 

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated insight team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens.

If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

Nick Bowes

Managing Director, Insight

Robert Gordon Clark

Senior Advisor and Partner

Emily Clinton

Account Manager, Insight 

 Daniel Reast

Insight Executive

Design:  Aroa Maquedano Pulido:

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting the LDN team by using the details above.

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