LDN Weekly – Issue 292 – 15 November 2023 – Get Me Dave
GET ME DAVE
"Reshuffles are an intrinsic part of British politics. While Keir Starmer’s reshuffle back in September was done from a position of strength, Rishi Sunak’s changes to his top team this week come from a position of weakness – perhaps even out of desperation."
| No images? Click here  GET ME DAVE“Reshuffles are an intrinsic part of British politics. While Keir Starmer’s reshuffle back in September was done from a position of strength, Rishi Sunak’s changes to his top team this week come from a position of weakness – perhaps even out of desperation. Sacking your Home Secretary by 9am on a Monday morning is a pretty brutal start to the week. Given her explosive reaction and today’s Supreme Court ruling, it’s safe to say this particular episode has further yet to run. Elevating David Cameron to the Lords and appointing him Foreign Secretary certainly has more than a whiff of Gordon Brown bringing back Peter Mandelson in 2008. Both governments in trouble – drafting in a heavyweight to shore up your team. It didn’t ultimately help Brown – only time will tell whether it helps Sunak. Since Cameron left No 10 in 2016, there have been four occupants of the highest office in the land. Sunday’s moving Remembrance Service at the Cenotaph visible proof that we now have more living former Prime Ministers than at any time in history. Others pointed out that if Liz Truss lived to 95, she’d spend more days at the Cenotaph than she managed as Prime Minister. And herein lies part of the problem – political instability fuelling, and in turn fuelled by, the churn of ministers in recent years. As well as five Prime Ministers since 2016, there’s been five Chancellors of the Exchequer and five Home Secretaries since 2019 alone. Then there is the small matter of housing ministers – 15 holders of the office since 2010 – Lee Rowley becoming the 16th. But, to confuse matters, Rowley was also the 13th – lasting just 7 weeks first time around. Are you keeping up? More people have sat in the Housing Minister’s chair since 2010 then have walked on the surface of the moon. Mastering a brief is crucial. Lee Rowley was straight into the Committee Stage of the Renters (Reform) Bill – no doubt it’s been a caffeine-fuelled 48 hours of university exam style cramming to get his head around the legislation but that’s not an ideal way for the Government to approach a piece of flagship legislation. The constant chopping and changing of ministers might make for good party management but it makes for bad government. It might yet save Rishi Sunak’s ailing government, or it could accelerate it towards defeat. At a time when confidence in our governing class is eroding and economic and political uncertainty is a product of the times we live in, regular reshuffling of ministers surely hinders rather than helps getting to grips with the huge challenges the country faces. And it matters more widely. I know from my time working at City Hall that Prime Ministers and key Cabinet members rarely stuck around for long enough to build a working relationship. Campaign groups, charities, businesses, local government must all share the same frustration. Uncertainty breeds falling confidence. Yet there is still perhaps a year until voters go to the polls, and with little sign of Labour’s lead narrowing, the conditions don’t feel ripe for matters settling down any time soon." Nick Bowes, Managing Director, Insight We hope you enjoy this edition and if you don't already, do follow us on Twitter, Instagram and LinkedIn. You can also visit our website for more information on LCA’s team, services, and clients. And finally, a technical note: If you like hearing from us, make sure to add ldn@londoncommunications.co.uk to your contacts or ‘safe sender’ list – this will help ensure our news bulletin lands in your inbox. If you love LDN and are looking for a weekly update on the social housing sector, sign up for our Social Housing Weekly newsletter. Compiled by our client team, it provides a tour of the week's major news out of the social and council housing sectors, including commentary from LCA Director, Harriet Shone. Click here and sign up today!  RI-SHUFFLESTOPPED IN OUR TRACKS: Pictures of former Prime Minister David Cameron strolling into 10 Downing Street on Monday morning was just one of several dramatic moments as the Prime Minister made changes to his Cabinet. Churn Town: (Soon-to-be-Lord) Cameron becomes Foreign Secretary, replacing James Cleverly, who in turn takes over as Home Secretary from the sacked Suella Braverman, amid growing disquiet with her criticism of the Metropolitan Police and her comments on homelessness. Old School Ties: Cameron is the first former Prime Minister to serve in a successor’s cabinet since Edward Heath appointed Alec Douglas-Home Foreign Secretary in 1970. He’s also the first Foreign Secretary to sit in the Lords since Lord Carrington (1979-82). Suella Unleashed: In a strongly-worded letter to the PM published on Tuesday afternoon, the former Home Secretary called Sunak ‘weak’, saying that he had ‘manifestly and repeatedly failed to deliver’ on key policies. She accused Sunak of ‘betrayal’ while hinting at an ‘agreement’ between them which resulted in him winning the leadership election. Nobody’s home: Lee Rowley becomes the 16th Housing Minister (his second stint) after reports suggested the Prime Minister was struggling to find a replacement for Rachel Maclean, who shared her disappointment at being dismissed. Simon Hoare joins the department as Rowley’s replacement covering the local government brief. Bus stop blues: Sutton and Cheam MP Paul Scully was given the ‘Spanish Archer’ (introducing many more people to a slang phrase for fired) but was ‘proud to serve & get things done’ as Minister for London and Minister for Tech and the Digital Economy. All smiles? Chelsea and Fulham MP Greg Hands returns to the Department for Trade for no less than the fourth time, after being demoted from Party Chair and takes over Scully’s London portfolio too. This is Hands’ second time as Minister for London - given his reputation, it seems unlikely he’ll continue Scully’s approach to the role, opting to be more aggressively partisan on the run in to next year’s Mayoral election. We will watch closely to see what support he provides to Susan Hall. Surprises in brief: Esther McVey returns to the Cabinet as what is being dubbed the ‘minister for common sense’, with Andrea Leadsom making a return to Government as a Health Minister. Environment Secretary Therese Coffey makes way for Steve Barclay, reshuffled from Health, with his former role filled by Victoria Atkins. AUTUMN STATEMENT LOOKAHEADA WEEK TO GO: Secure in his position for now (and rejoined at the Cabinet table by his former boss) Jeremy Hunt will be hard at work preparing what his first Autumn Statement as Chancellor, as the Government attempts (yet) another ‘reset’. We’ll bring you our initial response to the statement in next week’s edition, but for now, here’s what to look out for. Taxation speculation: Weekend coverage suggested Hunt may bring forward more tax cuts than first expected, including changes to stamp duty. The Telegraph reports that the Government is looking at plans to give homeowners, who improve the energy efficiency of their homes within the first two years of purchase, a stamp duty rebate. A leg up: Some are suggesting that the Government could announce measures to help first-time buyers onto the housing ladder, including by reforming stamp duty and extending the existing mortgage guarantee scheme. Mulling it over: Hunt is also reportedly considering a cut to inheritance tax, ISA reforms, income tax cuts, reforms to pensions and increases in fuel and alcohol duty. What won’t be in it: Business rates, however, look likely to increase after calls to freeze them were rejected, while the Chancellor doesn’t look likely to reinstate VAT-free shopping for tourists, or allow local leaders to introduce a hotel tax in their cities. LONDON PLANNING ROUNDUP
PEOPLE NEWS
 HOUSING MARKET ROUNDUPOUTNUMBERED: The Government has received a boost ahead of next week’s Autumn Statement, with news that the Prime Minister’s target to halve inflation by the end of the year has been met, falling to 4.6% (note, not the official target set to the Bank of England – which remains 2%). Ever Decreasing Circles: Yet, storm clouds still loom on the horizon, as the effect of interest rate rises work their way through the economy – the Bank of England warning high interest rates are here to stay and there’s a 50:50 chance of a recession in 2024. All of this, added to political and economic uncertainty both domestically and internationally, is leading to an erratic development sector, and differing views about what lies ahead. Three Up, Two Down: Depending on who you believe, house prices are up or down. The worst is over, 2023 wasn’t as bad as some feared, or the worst is yet to come. Amidst all this, London is seeing the biggest housing slowdown since 2009. Bless this House: Mortgage approvals have slumped and those in arrears, caught by higher interest rates, have surged. While sales are down, the rental market continues to go haywire, in part fuelled by landlords selling up in increasing numbers, leaving many Londoners in increasingly desperate situations. Rising Damp: Housebuilding is predicted to fall to the lowest levels since the 2008 financial crash, with some saying that the sector is at its weakest since the start of the pandemic. No Place Like Home: Some housebuilders are performing better than expected, some doing as predicted (albeit with profits still down on last year), while others are finding the going particularly tough. The Office: The picture is no clearer away from the residential market – while West End rents rocket, demand for smaller office space is strong, there is a flight to quality while others report sharp falls in non-core London office values. Yes, Minister: The new Housing Minister’s in-tray, already pretty full, will be overflowing given concerns about a slowing home building market. WE RECOMMEND
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