LDN Weekly – Issue 26 – 18 April 2018

NEVER MIND THE BALLOTS

Compulsory resident ballots for estate regeneration are (again) in the public eye after the Mayor’s public consultation on the policy closed last week.

With the local elections now just over two weeks away,  we look at the latest YouGov poll commissioned by London First and Grosvenor, which focuses on Londoners’ views on housing. Elsewhere, we ponder just why Sadiq’s relentless press machine has dialled down the volume.

We are also proud to have supported today’s launch of New London Architecture’s (NLA) 5th Annual London Tall Buildings Survey and tomorrow's launch of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for the UK’s Innovation Corridor.

Thank you for reading and do get in touch if you have any feedback. You can also follow us on Twitter @LDNComms.

ESTATE REGEN BALLOTS CONSULTATION

The consultation on the Mayor’s regeneration ballot proposals closed last week (10 April) and some of the responses have now found their way into the public domain. The public consultation more specifically related to proposals included in Sadiq’s updated 'Better Homes for Local People' good practice guide for regeneration, to require resident ballots for schemes that (a) include the demolition of homes and (b) seek GLA funding. City Hall is now processing the responses – though the Mayor is not, as it appears, obliged to take these into account when he implements the policy through amendments to the GLA’s Affordable Housing Capital Funding Guide. What we know of the submitted responses at present is limited to comments publicised by their contributors. The housing association sector, as represented by the National Housing Federation (NHF) and g15 group, appears to have cautiously welcomed the policy, while recommending that ballots only be mandatory for schemes where a significant percentage of homes are earmarked for demolition. Moreover a Freedom of Information (FOI) request published this March revealed that several London Boroughs including Tory-led Westminster, as well as Labour-led Hackney, Harrow and Lambeth already expressed reservations about such measures in an earlier consultation, held last year. More recently, Green Party AM Sian Berry cited a YouGov poll she commissioned as evidence that ‘64% of Londoners polled backed ballots for estate residents.’ A closer look at the detailed polling data released by YouGov suggests that the public’s understanding of and views on the policy are actually more nuanced. Indeed, the survey includes a second question not mentioned in either AM Berry’s blog or a relevant Assembly announcement, which asked whether ‘regeneration of estates should or should not be able to go ahead if it is opposed by existing residents?’ While 38% said they should not, 26% said they should be able to go ahead, and a full 36% said they simply don’t know.  

SADIQ AND THE MEDIA

Over the last couple of weeks, it has been hard to shake the impression that Sadiq has taken at least a half-step out of the limelight, particularly on violent crime. Anecdotal evidence of this withdrawal includes complaints by both the Conservatives and fellow Labourites like Tottenham MP David Lammy that Sadiq failed to put himself forward in the face of a significant spike in violent crime (unlike how he undoubtedly did in the aftermath of terrorist attacks). Harder evidence of the Mayor’s relative absence is more difficult to come by, but one metric is perhaps illustrative. As shown in the table below, Sadiq published 98 announcements in the first 15 weeks of this year on City Hall's website – an average of 6.5 per week. This rate dropped to one between 1 and 7 April and zero between 8 and 14 April, a period during which violent crime spiked, the death toll rose to above 50 in the year to date and media coverage reached fever pitch. Perhaps, one could say, this withdrawal is due to the pre-election period (or ‘purdah’) which started on 26 May, during which time restrictions apply on the use of public resources for political communications. Indeed, purdah was cited by City Hall in response to a complaint by broadcasters, who were barred from attending an emergency meeting of the London Assembly police and crime committee, held on 5 April, where Khan briefed Members on his efforts to tackle serious crime (the GLA has promised to publish a webcast after the election). But over the same period in the lead up to the 2014 local elections, Sadiq’s predecessor Boris Johnson published 66 announcements – an average of 4.4 per week – which by contrast peaked at 8 between 7 and 14 April. The Mayor is certainly not muzzled – he is broadcasting loud and clear about his canvassing efforts on Twitter and about Labour’s anti-semitism issue in a recent interview with the Jewish Chronicle. But he seems, uncharacteristically, a little bit muted.

HAVERING’S HUFF

The London Borough of Havering’s Regulatory Services Committee, which is responsible for planning in the borough, has voted six to five to reject a hybrid planning application for 2,900-homes (50% of which would be affordable) on a 32-hectare industrial site, despite an officer recommendation for approval. The proposals span both Havering and the London Borough of Barking & Dagenham (B&D), with 733 homes in Havering and 2,167 in B&D. Owing to the nature of the site, separate applications have been considered by both councils and recommendation for approval was given by B&D last month. Five Conservative councillors sitting on Havering’s committee were in favour of the scheme, but were voted down by a coalition of residents groups and UKIP refusing on grounds of height and local character. A council spokesperson has said that the application will now be referred to the Mayor’s office for further consideration.

TRANSPORT LATEST

The appetite for development near train stations in London appears to show no sign of slowing with Transport for London (TfL) announcing plans to bring forward two of its strategic sites by Metropolitan Line stations Harrow on the Hill and Northwood. Together, they will deliver 750 new homes with 35% affordable housing, although the Mayor’s target for affordable housing across all TfL sites remains at 50%. Train operator South Western Railway has meanwhile handed management of Clapham Junction station over to Network Rail, giving it full control of any station maintenance and renewal work. Network Rail has previously redeveloped Birmingham New Street and London Bridge stations and the organisation has been in talks with developer Capco to examine proposals for Clapham Junction’s regeneration. In other transport sector news, private equity fund Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) is reportedly considering selling its 42% stake in Gatwick Airport, estimated to be at around £10bn. And, if you are travelling over the weekend, don’t forget that a strike will likely be disrupting DLR services from 4am Friday through to 4am on Tuesday 24 April.

TOOLED UP

You may have missed it, but late last month City Hall signed off the release of £50k of funding to contribute towards the delivery of a common framework for delivering precision manufactured homes (PMH) at scale in London. The remaining costs of the £147,500 project will be supported by private sector investment. Recommendations that the Mayor work towards the development of a design code for PMH in the capital had been made in August 2017 by the London Assembly’s Planning Committee in their report Designed, Sealed, Delivered. Responding to the report, Sadiq acknowledged the potential of PMH in having ‘a direct, positive impact on the pace, scale and quality of homebuilding’ and its potential to increase the attractiveness of the construction industry to a new pool of workers.

HOMELESSNESS IN LONDON

Crisis and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JFR) have released their annual Homelessness Monitor, assessing economic factors that may impact homelessness in England and reporting on the level of rough sleeping nationally. Using data collected by St Mungo’s, the report also covers trends in rough sleeping in London. The most recent figures for 2016/17 (8,108) indicate that reported rough sleeping numbers are similar to 2015/16 (8,096). However, the most recent figures still present a 104% increase on rough sleeping figures from 2010/11. What’s more, whilst the figure show a clear decrease in reported rough sleepers from Central and Eastern Europe – suggested by some as a result of Brexit – from the previous year, this decrease is offset by a rise in reported rough sleepers from the UK over the same period. The government will hope that its newly-instated Homelessness Reduction Act, which places a legal duty on councils to give people meaningful support to try and resolve and prevent homelessness, will stem any further rises in homelessness in London.

BUILD TO RENT BONANZA

The British Property Federation (BPF) has published a new set of data on the build-to-rent (BTR) delivery pipeline, produced by Savills, outlining the growth of the sector over the period Q1 2017 to Q1 2018. The data is visualised on an interactive map on the BPF’s website, which is updated quarterly. This shows that the total number of BTR homes complete, under construction or in planning across the UK has increased by 30% in the past year. Note that ‘in planning’ includes ‘capacity identified by local authorities and developers on strategic sites yet to have a planning application submitted.’ This tallies up to 117,893 homes at the end of Q1 2018, compared to a total 90,761 at the end of Q1 2017. 20,863 of these have actually been completed, countrywide, of which 6492 have been built in the 12-month period examined. The capital represents the single biggest region for BTR homes completed (12,062 to date and 3,060 in the past 12 months alone), and ‘in planning’ (34,857). The LCA team is pleased to be supporting Quintain’s Wembley Park project, the UK’s largest BTR development on a single site, which will deliver 5,000 homes for rent.

PEOPLE MOVES

Rod Cahill, the Chief Executive of housing association Catalyst, has announced that he will be retiring after 26 years in the job. Cahill led the merger of several smaller associations into Catalyst in 2002, which is today a member of the g15 group and manages over 21,000 homes in London and the South East. Meanwhile, Lewisham Homes – the borough’s ALMO – has appointed Margaret Dodwell as its new Chief Executive, replacing Andrew Potter as of 27 April. Dodwell is currently serving as interim operations director at Vivid, Hampshire’s largest housing association. And in news that will be of particular interest to developers and contractors concerned about the availability of skilled construction workers, the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) has appointed Peter Lauener as its new Chair. Lauener, who is replacing James Wates as of 1 May, is currently interim Chief Executive of the Student Loans Company.

POLLING ON HOUSING

London First and Grosvenor have released a polling report explicitly intended to ‘survey Londoners and Councillors in London on their views about housing, particularly in relation to the local elections in May 2018.’ YouGov was commissioned to run the poll, which included an online survey of 1,043 Londoners (13-19 March) and a survey of 200 London councillors (15 March - 2 April). There was widespread agreement among those polled that there is a shortage of homes in London, including 74% of the wider public and a full 90% of councillors. The poll of Londoners found that the top issues determining the vote are Brexit (44%), the NHS (39%) and housing (31%), which broadly resembles the findings of other recent polls by Queen Mary University and Lord Ashcroft. 43% of Londoners-at-large said they would be more favourable towards local politicians promising to build more homes in their area – favourability was even more pronounced among inner Londoners, renters and younger voters. Only 15% said it would make them less favourable. It is interesting to compare these views with those of the councillors polled: Only 29% of councillors said they believed they would enjoy more support if they backed more homes and 28% of councillors said they would expect less public support.

TROUBLES IN TORY-LAND

In what looks like a bid to save the Conservative Party from any further electoral doldrums, two of its leading figures in Michael Gove and Ruth Davidson have reportedly agreed to front the launch of a new think-tank geared to appeal to under-45s that have become estranged from the party. ‘Onward’ will launch in just under a month, after what are expected to be poor local election results for the Conservatives in London, and especially so among the under-45s. Polling by Queen Mary University in February has indicated that voting intention for the Tories among 25-49s was at 18% versus 63% for Labour. Davidson was also canvassing out in Wandsworth this weekend, a sign of how serious the party are in defending what has been a Tory council since 1978. Davidson’s brand of modern Conservatism could make a difference here, however, it appears to remain the case of one step forward, two steps back on the campaign trail for London’s Tories. One unfortunate gaffe this week came in the form of a rudely addressed letter to a couple from South London (with lost votes to follow, no doubt). And, Labour-afilliated commentator Owen Jones has drawn attention to foot-in-mouth comments made online by Conservative West End candidate Hilary Su, in which he suggests that she thinks being gay is ‘immoral.’

H&F LABOUR VS CORBYN?

Hammersmith & Fulham (H&F) Council Leader Stephen Cowan and his Labour group have long promised to support EU citizens. In January, the borough’s Labour councillors carried a motion calling on the government to ‘abandon any plans for a hard Brexit’ and to hold a second referendum on the exit deal negotiated with the EU. This past week, Cowan was at it again, as he reportedly wrote to voters in the borough to tell them that the local elections are an opportunity for them to ‘say no to Brexit’ and that H&F Labour is ‘campaigning to stay in the EU’. While pro-Brexit Labour MPs such as Graham Stringer publicly condemned the move, a Sphinx-like Labour spokesman was cited by the Sunday Telegraph as saying only that the party ‘accepts the referendum’ and that a ‘Labour government will put the national interest first’. It is worth noting that 70% of H&F residents voted to ‘remain’ in the EU referendum and an estimated 35,000 EU-born residents live in the borough, a full 19% of its population and thus a potentially powerful voting bloc.

LONDON MOMENTUM GOES NATIONAL 

Momentum-watchers may have picked up two interesting pieces of news in recent days. One is a report by the Hackney Gazette, which assessed the organisation’s strength in numbers and activities, with a focus on four boroughs. The local newspaper reported that Momentum’s national membership ‘now exceeds 40,000’ – more than the Green Party. In London, its Hackney branch has 690 members, Haringey has 565, Islington 561, and Camden 445. The second piece of news relates to the elections for the Momentum’s National Coordinating Group, which was held this week. The results are now out. It is worth noting that the 16 members of the group include a number of prominent London Labour members, namely NEC member Jon Lansman, Tower Hamlets Labour Party Secretary Apsana Begum and Yannis Gourtsoyannis, an NHS doctor and Momentum activist whose opinion pieces have been published by a number of major media outlets, including the Guardian, The Times and HuffPost. The group also includes two Haringey councillors, Joseph Ejiofor and Emina Ibrahim.

LIB DEM MANIFESTOS GREAT AND SMALL

The Liberal Democrats have now published their manifesto for the 2018 local elections in Richmond, a borough they have firmly set their sights on winning. Leader of the Liberal Democrat Group Councillor Gareth Roberts has vowed his party will ‘end town hall secrecy’, ‘lip service consultations’ and ensure developers ‘pay their way’ through affordable housing and the Community Infrastructure Levy. The manifesto also makes a substantial play to EU residents (7% of which live in the borough according to the latest ONS data) by promising to lobby central government against Brexit. In contrast, and perhaps reflective of more modest ambitions come May, Islington Liberal Democrats have published a leaner offer centring on ‘Holding the Council to Account’ and being ‘Local Champions.’ For a more broad assessment of what both of these manifestos might reveal of the party’s ambitions for May, do check out our latest LCA blog here.

UK INNOVATION CORRIDOR APPG LAUNCHES ON 19 APRIL

Daniel Zeichner, MP for Cambridge and Chair of the newly created group, will be joined by Sir John Armitt, Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), and Dr Ann Limb CBE, Chair of the London Stansted Cambridge Consortium (LSCC), to formally launch the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for the UK’s Innovation Corridor. This cross-party group of MPs and Peer will champion the UK’s Innovation Corridor that runs between London and Cambridge as a vital region to support economic growth, the delivery of new homes and the creation of skilled jobs.
 

NLA ANNUAL TALL BUILDINGS REPORT

LCA is proud to be supporting today’s launch of New London Architecture’s (NLA) 5th Annual London Tall Buildings Survey. As an article in today’s Evening Standard highlights, there are now 510 tall buildings in the pipeline for London, which is up from 455 in 2016. Around 106,000 homes could be delivered for London by these tall buildings with a record number of 115 schemes now under construction. This is the second year we have worked on the PR for the report and this year we are particularly pleased that the report and launch includes another one of our clients, VU.CITY, the largest, most accurate digital model in the world, showing London’s development pipeline.
 

CORRECTION

Last week’s issue reported that the London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority (LFEPA) would be dissolved following a Mayoral announcement in February. We would like to clarify that the decision was in fact originally announced by ministers in 2016 during Boris Johnson’s tenure as Mayor, and brought into effect by Parliament’s Policing and Crime Act which received Royal Assent in January 2017. Reforms to the governance of the London Fire Brigade were subsequently implemented as of 1 April. We would like to thank our reader who helpfully advised that our story, as published, could foster the misconception that this reorganisation was initiated by the current Mayor.

LCA prides itself on its intelligence-led approach to PR and communications and our dedicated research team monitors London politics, news and issues as it happens. If you would like to know more about LCA or anything in this edition of LDN – London in short please get in touch. 

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LDN is put together by a dedicated team at London Communications Agency. The content for each edition is developed from news drawn from the last week from every London local paper as well as the regional and national press, from intelligence gathered by monitoring local, regional and national government activity and from the insight and expert knowledge of the entire LCA team.

If you would like to know more about anything covered in this or any other edition of LDN or if you would like to know more about LCA please contact Duncan Hepburn on 020 7612 8480 or dh@londoncommunications.co.uk.

We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting Duncan using the details above.